The US currency rose in the local market along with the international market, and awaits the impact of monetary policy measures.
He dollar in Uruguay 2024 began on the right foot and a slight increase that keeps the price in the range of 39 pesos, where it managed to remain during the last months of 2023.
With an increase of 0.18% at the close of the first exchange day of the year, the dollar was quoted at 39,092 pesos, according to official data from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU). In this way, and in an extremely premature balance, the US currency begins the year in positive territory after 2023 in which it depreciated 2.62%, in line with international trends.
The positive impact finds reasons, mainly, in the global behavior of the greenback; although it will be necessary to see in the coming days if the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) to cut interest rates once again—by 25 basis points, leaving the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 9%—will impact the relationship peso – dollar at the local market level.
At the moment, the forecast of economic analysts is for a 2024 marked by the weakness of the US currency, pushed down by the beginning of the cycle of cuts in the United States Federal Reserve (Fed), which are estimated at a total of 0.75% throughout the year.
What happened with the new year in the international market?
Meanwhile, the dollar index It also began 2024 with a significant increase, and closed yesterday’s day at 101,891 units and an increase of 0.85%. Likewise, today it has already reached peaks of 102,255 units.
In this way, the dollar global stock traded near its highest level in two weeks, driven by the high performance of the US treasury bonds due to the fall in prices of Actions of the main stock indices of USA. This increased the attractiveness of that country’s debt and pushed the dollar upward.
“I think that what happened in the second half of December was not justified,” he considered. Alvin Tan, of RBC Capital Markets, in dialogue with the Reuters agency. “The markets got carried away by this vision of imminent cuts of the Fed in the first quarter, which caused the dollar to fall. So I think this setback may last a little longer,” he noted, referring to the sharp fall that the currency suffered during the latter part of 2023.
Although the market seems to be heading towards a certain stability, the scenario could change abruptly again due to new announcements from the Fed or the effective start of the cut in interest rates.
Source: Ambito
