The Macroeconomic Coordination Committee made its projections for the coming years in terms of inflation of economic activity.
He Macroeconomic Coordination Committee projected a inflation around 4.9% by 2024 in Uruguay, after maintaining the target range without modifications, between 3% and 6%. They also foresee greater dynamism in activity over the next two years.
The representatives of the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) and the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) They had a last meeting in 2023 where they analyzed the evolution of the inflation, the expectations of economic agents and the projections for the entire horizon of monetary politics.
There, and taking into account the performance of the macroeconomic variables of the year, not only did they decide to maintain the target range without modifications, but rather they projected the possible scenario for price increases over the next two years. In that sense, the estimate is that at the end of 2024, accumulated inflation will be 4.9%; while by the end of 2025, it will be 5.3%.
The Committee also analyzed the performance of the economic activity, hit particularly hard by the drought history that he experienced Uruguay —whose effects mainly hit the agro-export sectors for much of the year—and due to the exchange difference with Argentina. In this regard, a recovery of dynamism is expected over the next two years.
This would be possible due to the recovery of the exports, that in 2023 they fell 13%, breaking a streak of two consecutive positive years; and of consumption of households, between an equalization of the exchange rate with the neighboring country and a recovery of real wages in the national territory. The activity level projectionsmeanwhile, remained in line with the latest published ones.
Inflation in 2023 was within the target range
The inflation accumulated during the year 2023 totaled 5.11% after knowing the figure for the month of December, placing it within the target range.
According to the Institute National Statistics Office (INE) In the latest estimated report of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) corresponding to last year, the inflation It had a negative monthly variation of 0.11% in the last month of 2023 (base period in October 2022) and the index number was established at 104.55.
During the year 2022, the inflation had remained above the target range, ending that year at 8.29%, despite the fact that prices experienced a decline of 0.26%, setting the index number at 99.47.
Source: Ambito
