The idea of a first cut in March is once again gaining strength among operators awaiting positive inflation data for December.
He global dollar continues to be a sign of the spirit of the operators who, in the run-up to the publication of inflation data USA, They look for signs that allow us to outline with greater precision the possible monetary path of the Federal Reserve (Fed) for this year. Meanwhile, the fall amid expectations also influenced the cutting of the bullish streak that the currency maintained in Uruguay.
The US government will announce today the inflation monthly consumer data for December, and the general expectation is that it has slowed down once again, marking a trend towards strengthening the economy. For investors and traders, confirmation of this improvement would pave the way for the Fed begins, effectively, with the beginning of the interest rate cut cycle of reference, with March as the starting line.
For him dollar global, meanwhile, does not seem to be good news: with the increasing conviction in the markets that rates will begin to fall sooner than expected and, perhaps, to a greater extent than announced by the Fed —The Central Bank indicated a total annual cut of 75 basis points, but the operators’ bet is around 130 bp.—; The currency returned to negative behavior after a week in which it appreciated around 1%.
In this way, the dollar index It closed yesterday at 102,080 units, falling from 102,284 units, its maximum in almost three weeks and the highest value reached so far in 2024.
“To me, the market is thinking too much about the future. Yes, rate cuts are coming, that’s practically a given. But do I really think the Fed “Is it going to cut rates in March unless there is a problem in the banking sector or the commercial real estate sector in the United States?” he said. Michael Hewson, chief market strategist CMC Markets, to the Reuters agency, reporting what it considers to be an overly optimistic attitude on the part of some operators.
In Uruguay the bullish streak was cut
Meanwhile, in the local exchange market, a bullish streak which had accumulated six positive days since the last business day of 2023.
According to official data from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU)he dollar It fell 0.27% and closed at 39,334 pesos. Although the price remains in the range of 39 pesos, it is still below the value that operators expected at the end of December of last year.
In any case, yesterday’s drop was the first of a year in which no major changes are expected at the level of the exchange delay that is experienced in Uruguay —which meant a devaluation of the US currency of 10.35% in 2022, and 2.62% in 2023. For now, the same expectations that lower the dollar At a global level, they are those that also impact, consequently, the local exchange rate.
At the moment, the greenback accumulates a positive monthly and annual variation of 0.80%.
Source: Ambito
