The financial services company Barclays projects that the Brent crude oil price This year it will drop 8 dollars, reaching 85 dollars per barrel, due to the increase in supply, although he warned that the Petroleum seems undervalued.
Barclays explained that the cut in forecasts is mainly due to “a higher starting point for inventories and a potentially longer path to normalization of OPEC reserve capacity,” Reuters reported.
However, he added that he expects demand momentum to pick up sequentially and that supply growth will not OPEC+ to slow sharply in 2024.
The oil futures They lost more than 10% in 2023, in a tumultuous year marked by geopolitical turmoil and concern about the production levels of the world’s main producers. Large inventory draws did not materialize in the fourth quarter of 2023 as demand slowed and supply was higher than expected, according to the bank.
Saudi Arabiathe world’s leading exporter of Petroleumon Sunday cut the official February sale price of its emblematic Arab Light raw to Asia to the lowest level in 27 months in response to increased supply and competition with rival producers.
“We believe investors should weigh the risk of looser OPEC+ cohesion, but it should not be the baseline scenario,” Barclays said.
Angola abandoned the OPEC, effective January 1, following a dispute with the producer group over the size of its production quota. The decision is also a consequence of an enhanced cooperation agreement signed between China and the African country.
The impact of the oil price for Uruguay
Uruguay is a net importing country of Petroleum through the state company Ancap. Therefore, the fluctuations in international prices directly affect its import capacity and also the reference price for the local market, defined from the Import Parity Price (PPI) which is prepared monthly by the Ursea (Energy and Water Regulatory Unit).
Ancap In 2022 it bought WTI Midland crude oil, whose benchmark is West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of the United States. However, as the state company explained last June when publishing information on all its imports, the reference value for each purchase is usually determined from the average of Brent crude oil in the month of unloading.
Although the first half of 2023, the so-called “financial back” of Ancap allowed the policy of fuel prices In the local market it was not always adjusted by international values, the second half of last year did have a correlation with the fluctuations of the global market and the future values of crude oil.
Source: Ambito
