“With a corresponding delay, a decline in the number of cases in the intensive care units can be expected,” said the weekly update published on Wednesday. The first declines in hospital numbers are “but still at a partially system-critical high level of occupancy,” it was emphasized. For the last forecast day on December 15, a seven-day incidence in the range of 180 to 300 cases per 100,000 population is assumed. According to the im Expert preview prepared on behalf of the Ministry of Health.
With a time lag from the peak of the fourth wave, the occupancy forecast for the hospitals contained therein assumes a decline in bed occupancy in intensive care and normal wards. The critical mark of 33 percent utilization of intensive care units with Covid patients will only be exceeded with a probability of 2.5 percent across Austria at the end of the forecast period in two weeks on December 22nd.
This is based on the assumption that the admission and discharge regime in the hospitals remains unchanged, but due to the convergence of occupancy limits, “changes in the admission and discharge regime are to be expected,” emphasized the model calculators. In one week, on December 15th, the 33 percent occupancy limit can be exceeded in all federal states. The probability is lowest in Vienna with 0.5 percent and quite high in Vorarlberg with 84 percent.
The experts stated that the assumptions made in the previous prognosis for intensive pavement had actually been exceeded in some federal states. In Burgenland the numbers were even above the 95 percent interval and in Lower Austria and Vorarlberg above the 68 percent confidence interval.
Especially in federal states with low absolute numbers of cases, such as Burgenland and Vorarlberg, increases in the intensive surface have been recorded in the past few days. The forecast calculators suspect that this could suggest an increase in the time interval between a positive test and intensive admission. However, this cannot be checked due to the lack of a link between the data. The Covid forecast consortium consisted of representatives from the Vienna University of Technology, the Medical University of Vienna / Complexity Science Hub Vienna (CSH) and Gesundheit Österreich GmbH.
Source: Nachrichten
