Podcast: How are we going to do it this year, Ms. Huber?

Inflation is not only more persistent in Austria than some would have expected. Inflation will therefore remain relatively high this year. “In contrast to some others, I therefore expect that the key interest rates will not be lowered again early and that the decline will not be so steep,” says the general director of Sparkasse Oberösterreich, Stefanie Christina Huber, in the OÖN podcast “Money and Life”. Economics department head Dietmar Mascher. Last but not least, it is the high wage increases that were agreed in the collective bargaining negotiations that could keep inflation high.

From an investor’s perspective, 2023 was a very good year. Interest rates had risen, and as a result there was great demand for bonds. But the shares also performed much better than in the previous year. So good that she expects positive impulses for this year, says Huber.

The fact that the US technology index Nasdaq has developed so well is primarily due to the generally very strong demand for technology stocks. A technology stock, SAP, is also responsible for the high of the German DAX.

The ATX, on the other hand, is not as technology-heavy and therefore lags behind the other indices. “But the strong involvement of domestic companies in the East and the associated war in Ukraine also played a role,” says the Sparkasse boss, who assumes that the ATX could catch up a lot compared to other markets this year.

The peak of the yield curve has indeed been exceeded. However, if interest rates did not fall quickly, bonds or bond funds would continue to be attractive.

Huber expects that part of the wage increase would not only be consumed, but also invested. She doesn’t think it’s wrong that gold is being bought despite peak prices. However, she is currently urging caution when it comes to real estate, whose prices fluctuate very strongly.

“No problem with loans”

The banker sees no problems on the credit side. More than 80 percent of housing loans now come with a fixed interest rate. “We advised in the right direction,” says Huber. Variable-interest loans are usually only part of a portfolio. There, too, you can already see the hint of a turnaround in interest rates. Since the variable interest rates are based on the Euribor and not the key interest rate, the loan installments for customers are being reduced slightly again.

You can also listen to the podcast on the following platforms:

• Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0WshpPV8wMsYxvIqrznWph
• Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/geld-und-leben/id1686094839
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• Deezer: https://www.deezer.com/show/5759567
• Amazon Music: https://music.amazon.de/podcasts/cacee42c-5d06-46ef-a78a-7f8d38c0baac/geld-und-leben

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