Retail sales data in the US led traders to reduce their high rate cut bets, with a positive impact globally and locally.
He dollar in Uruguay had another upward close, the second in a row, in line with the currency internationally, which remains stable around five-week highs.
The biggest exchange rate stability internationally has its correlation in the local market, where the dollar It had its second consecutive day on the rise and, although slightly, recovered another 0.05% of its value – considering that in 2023 it fell 2.62% from “end to end.”
In this way, and according to official data from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU)the US currency was quoted at 39,283 pesos, and remains strong within this price range, although still far from the market expectationswhich predicted a value of 39.5 pesos by the end of last year.
So far in January, meanwhile, it has accumulated an appreciation of 0.67%. In turn, it is at similar levels to those of a year ago.
An intentional scenario that tends towards calm
Meanwhile, globally, the dollar seems to have found a situation of relative stability at a good price level, after market expectations for a more rapid reduction in interest rates than the one raised by the United States Federal Reserve (Fed)will begin to reduce.
In that sense, the dollar index It was stable at 103.33 units, after reaching 103.69 on Wednesday for the first time since December 13. And while market bets were reduced to 61% regarding a first rate cut in March, when on Tuesday these probabilities stood at 65%, according to the tool FedWatch of CME.
In any case, the total expected reductions continue to be 145 basis points throughout 2024, despite the fact that authorities of the Fed like the governor Christopher Waller this week rejected expectations of a quick relaxation of monetary policy.
“The US data have been uneven, but yesterday some retail sales very solid indicators that indicate that it is not necessary to be too aggressive with rate cuts,” he considered Niels Christensen, chief analyst of Nordea, in dialogue with the Reuters agency. “The lowering expectations rate cuts and risk aversion sentiment are positive for the dollar”, he added.
Source: Ambito
