The Economic Expectations Survey of the Central Bank of Uruguay anticipated an improvement of around 6% compared to its current level.
He dollar It has just closed another year down, but in any case the market expects a recovery in 2024, with an estimated improvement of 6.01% compared to its current value, according to the latest Economic Expectations Survey (EEA) of Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU).
The analysts consulted by the monetary authority estimated that the value of the dollar It will be 41.40 pesos at the end of December, according to the median of the responses, a value 0.48% lower than the 41.60 pesos estimated last month.
As for this month, the EEA indicated that the market expects a value close to 39.38 pesos for the end of January, while expecting an improvement of 2.97% in the first semester, with a price of 41.25 pesos at the end of June.
Projecting into the future, analysts anticipated a value of 43.20 pesos for the closing of 2025 and 45.65 pesos for December 2026, which implies increases of 9.6% and 14.45%, respectively.
Given these forecasts, it remains to be seen what the evolution of the banknote will be like in a year in which there is optimism about a strengthening of the dollar at a global level, which could push up the price in Uruguay. In that sense, the decisions of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) They will be a key element.
Analysts’ forecast of economic activity
For its part, the EEE also asked about the variation of the GDP, with a slight downward adjustment compared to what was expected in December. Analysts consider that the economic activity it grew 0.30% in 2023, 5 basis points less than expected in December.
However, for this year there was an upward correction, with a growth expected 3.20% of the economy, 10 basis points above the previous forecast. Finally, by 2025 an improvement of 2.50% is expected, as was the case last month.
Source: Ambito
