He dollar in Uruguay continues its path contrary to what is happening in the international exchange scenario: while the dollar index hit a six-week high, the local exchange rate fell again in the range of 38 pesos.
In its third consecutive day of decline, the dollar fell 0.15% yesterday. According to the official quote of the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU), was positioned at 38,685 pesos. This value is already almost one peso below what market agents expect for the end of the month—with just six exchange days left—, a median of 39.38 pesos; Therefore, the gap between expectations and the actual behavior of the US currency remains significant.
In turn, so far in January—and in 2024—the greenback has already lost 0.86% of its value, which adds to the 2.62% accumulated depreciation in 2023; and 10.35% in 2022, deepening the exchange rate delay that the Uruguayan economy has been experiencing.
What is the reason for the decoupling with the global dollar?
Meanwhile, the international context appears favorable for the evolution of the dollar, which, at the close of trading on Tuesday, reached a six-week peak against a basket of six other currencies.
With a maximum of 103.76 units and a close at 103.62 units – which meant an increase of 0.2% after two weeks of positive closings – the US currency seems to be stabilizing on the path of recovery, while expectations for cuts in interest rates by the United States Federal Reserve (Fed). In the opposite direction to dollar in Uruguay.
Although international analysts do not expect the US currency to reach considerable highs that exceed 104 points, they understand that the market is going through a moment of greater moderation around the risk perspective associated with the monetary politics of the Fed, Therefore, the current stability could extend for some time longer, as long as current conditions are maintained.
In Uruguay, Meanwhile, and unlike what happened during 2023, when the local exchange rate evolved almost in the same way as the global one, the dollar It abandoned the relatively bullish trend to fall sharply during the last three days.
“With inflation controlled and Monetary Regulation Bills yielding above 9%, they are super attractive and encourage investors to decide to sell some position in dollars to place themselves in pesos, and with that put pressure on the dollar downwards,” considered the financial analyst Francisco Echegoyen, of Gaston Bengochea, in dialogue with Ambit.
Along the same lines, analysts understand that the BCU still has a wide margin to continue lowering interest rates, while inflation expectations move at an average of 6% – between official projections and those expected by market agents. —; while the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) It is three percentage points higher. This statement aims to try to recover the value of the dollar through less attractiveness of placements in pesos.
Source: Ambito
