He dollar in Uruguay It is still unable to adapt to international movements: after three consecutive days of falling while the currency recovered globally, yesterday the behaviors were reversed and the local exchange market registered a minimal rise that did not replicate the general scenario.
Although the increase was minimal, just 0.06%, the breaking of the streak of falls brought some relief among the sectors that observe the exchange rate, but what they see is the level of competitiveness from the country. It is that with the setback of the last few days, the dollar It fell below the 39 peso range for the first time since December 1 of last year, even though the international context gave rise to more positive behavior.
At the close of trading yesterday, meanwhile, the US currency was quoted at 38,707 pesos, according to official data from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU). Thus, the price of the greenback stabilized in the range of 38 pesos, within which it was worth 38,685 pesos on Tuesday.
The news is not enough to be positive: so far in January—and in 2024—the dollar accumulates a depreciation of 0.86%, which is added to the 2.62% regressed during 2023 —and 10.35% in 2022—, deepening the exchange delay and the concern of the export sectors that continue to observe the deterioration of the competitiveness of the national economy compared to the world.
Likewise, the price remains far from market expectationsdespite the continuous downward adjustments that agents make in their projections: according to the latest Economic Expectations Survey (EEE) According to the BCU, at the end of January the currency should be trading around 39.38 pesos. At the moment, it is 0.67 pesos below.
What happened to the dollar internationally?
Meanwhile, and maintaining the opposite course to the local exchange market, the global dollar had a slight drop after several days of positive stability: the dollar index It subtracted 0.2% and stood at 103.26 units after reaching a maximum in six weeks and accumulating a positive balance of 1.7% so far this year.
The variation in the performance of the currency has to do with the expectations of the operators regarding the evolution of the currency. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States regarding the fourth quarter of 2023, prior to a new meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Likewise, tomorrow the personal consumption expenditure (PCE)the favorite inflation and indicator of the US Central Bank to make its reading regarding the monetary politics.
Analysts claim that the dollar It is still in full upward correction, until the Fed begins to cut rates. “The dollar correction since the Q4 2023 decline may not be over yet, although momentum indicators are stretching,” he said Marc Chandler of Bannockburn Forex in NY, to the Reuters agency. He added that the generally stable U.S. economic outlook should be enough to further reduce the odds of a rate cut in March.
For his part, the chief currency strategist of Scotiabank in Toronto, Shaun Osborne, considered that “it is possible that we see a little more strength from the dollar in the short term, as we have seen a revaluation of risk around cuts in interest rates Fed”.
Source: Ambito
