The eventual fall of the agreement would have implications at the regional level, but would also cause a strong impact at the local level.
He Mercosur-EU agreement seems to be diluted after the demands of France to incorporate food sovereignty into its regulations and failure in the extensive negotiations threatens to generate a negative impact at the international and regional level, which will also affect Uruguay.
If it is confirmed that the agreement with the European Union is truncated, not only will the Mercosur, but also “the pressure for flexibility will increase”, a line proposed by the president Luis Lacalle Pou, and there is even the possibility of “discussing belonging,” as he expressed in dialogue with Scope Ignacio Bartesaghi, director of the UCU International Business Institute.
When analyzing what it would mean for the agreement to be definitively frustrated, Bartesaghi observed that “the image and credibility of the Mercosur it looks bad at the international level”, by contrasting that “many countries and blocs were waiting to see if it progressed to look at it more seriously.”
The implications at the regional level of an eventual breakup
On the other hand, the Doctor in International Relations considered that the break with the EU “at the regional level it can lead to a more in-depth discussion on the reform of the Mercosur”, in moments where Uruguayan government calls for modernization.
In that sense, the appearance on the scene of President of Argentina, Javier Milei, can be essential. “Based on the new balances in the region and, if everything goes well, with the support of Milei, a different Mercosur would be discussed based on the resounding failure of not closing this agreement,” Bartesaghi said, stating that it would be “a good idea.” “Once and for all, say that we cannot continue like this.”
The impact in Uruguay and a discussion that can get into the campaign
Regarding its implications on the local scene, the UCU analyst noted that “we will be left empty-handed if we do not close this agreement” and anticipated: “It will increase the pressure on the Uruguayan government to advance in the flexibility or the bilateralization of Mercosur.”
In this regard, he indicated that “the pressure from the businessmen, that need market openings” and did not rule out a remoteness of the block. “We are going to progressively begin to ask ourselves if Uruguay It depends on others to decide its trade policy or whether it is time to discuss its membership in Mercosur. It is something that is going to end up coming sooner or later due to this long series of failures,” Bartesaghi said.
Along these lines, he considered that within the framework of the elections 2024 “There is going to be a strong discussion in the campaign about whether Uruguay “You can continue to expect others to make decisions for us.”
Source: Ambito
