The inflation of USA fell to 3.1% annually in January, although the decline was less than expected, so market speculation about a soon cut in interest rates continues to cool. interest rates on the part of the Federal Reserve (Fed).
After knowing the information of the CPI, he dollar index was trading higher, reaching a three-month peak of 104.87 units, with investors anticipating that rates will continue at the same level in March.
Specifically, the US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a slowdown of 3 tenths of the inflation compared to the December figure, but it disappointed the market, which expected the figure to be lower by around 2.9%, according to the consensus gathered by the specialized site Market Watch.
Meanwhile, the Underlying inflation, which excludes the most volatile food and energy prices and constitutes key data for the markets, remained at 3.9% in 12 months.
Fed’s possible rate cut delayed
Regarding a possible reduction in interest rates, Russell Price, chief economist at Ameriprise Financial in Troy, Michigan, argued that “the Fed has indicated that he is going to take it easy, and I think that today’s data, as well as the data from employment last week, prove that they are right to do so.
The futures of federal funds They predicted this Tuesday that there would be no rate cut in March and a less than 50% probability of relaxation in May, according to an LSEG application. Thus, it is expected that the first cut will occur only in June, with an approximate probability of 80%.
The global dollar rises, can it be replicated in Uruguay?
After the data of inflation, he global dollar reached high levels and even the US currency surpassed the psychological level of 150 yen for the first time since November. In parallel, the euro fell 0.6% to $1.0705, while the bitcoin It was trading at $49,307.
The bill also appreciated in the region against emerging currencies, with the logical exception of Uruguay, Argentina and Brazil, where the markets remain closed for the holiday Carnival.
It is worth noting that the dollar It comes from two consecutive weeks of growth in the country, with a value of 39,163 pesos at its close on Friday and stabilized above the range of 38 pesos, beyond some ups and downs.
To show harmony with the global dollar, the exchange rate could appreciate against the Uruguayan Peso and begin to slowly approach market expectations, which set its price at 41.40 pesos by the end of the year, according to the latest BCU Economic Expectations Survey (EEE).
Source: Ambito
