International operators are increasingly betting on a first half of the year without Fed cuts, which is why the currency continues to appreciate globally.
He dollar in Uruguay opens a short week of market positioned ten days ago in the range of 39 pesos, dominated by a behavior of ups and downs that, although it keeps it stable, in general, does not allow it to advance towards the expectations of national economic agents.
He dollar opens today after four days without trading due to the extra long weekend of Carnival, with Monday and Tuesday as non-working holidays. The last exchange day, on Friday, closed with a small drop for the US currency, a negative 0.14% that took the price of the currency to 39.163 pesos. However, the weekly balance ended up being positive “from end to end” for the second consecutive time.
The same thing happens with the balance accumulated so far this year: after a great start in January and a decline at the end of that month, the dollar It is once again moving in positive territory and has appreciated by 0.36% in 2024.
The new week brings unknowns regarding what can happen in the three days of operation of the exchange market. On the one hand, because the projections of economic agents remain distant – by the end of January an exchange rate of 39.38 pesos was expected, a figure that remains unreached; while, on the other hand, the US currency at the local level does not directly follow its behavior at a global level, which also makes forecasts difficult.
The global scenario gives rise to a rise in the dollar
With the publication of the data of inflation in USA, New possibilities are opening up for the price in the Uruguayan market, based on what can happen with the dollar globally.
This is because the inflation figure was 3.1% year-on-year, which although it represented a fall, the decrease was less than expected. Consequently, expectations of a rapid cut in benchmark interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) they continue to cool, at the same time that the dollar index —which compares the US currency with a basket of six other currencies of global importance— reached a three-month peak of 104.95 units.
In short, the growing possibility that rates will remain unchanged in March – the strong bets on the first cut were carried over to May and, mostly, to June – means that operators continue betting on the dollar, while the value of the bill will remain historically high. Consequently, around the world, the currency should continue to appreciate.
The uncertainty is whether Uruguayan exchange rate will be able to echo the possible positive behavior of the US currency, after several weeks that were marked, mainly, by ups and downs in the local scenario.
Source: Ambito
