He risk country fell so far this month, according to the different indicators, so that the Uruguay sovereign spread It remains, by far, the lowest in the region.
The fall is verified with the Country Risk Index prepared by the Uruguayan Electronic Stock Exchange (Irubevsa), which despite having risen 3 basis points and remaining at 81, is experiencing a decrease of 16.49% so far this month, compared to 97 bp on January 31.
Something similar happens with the Uruguay Bond Index (UBI), that elaborates AFAP Republic and is at 78 basis points, falling 12.82% compared to the 88 bp on the last day of last month.
JP Morgan’s EMBI and the regional panorama
If you analyze the EMBI (Emerging Markets Bond Index) prepared by JP Morgan based on the behavior of the external debt For each country, a similar behavior can be observed, with an index of 0.90 basis points, which represents a decrease of 7.78% in relation to the 0.97 bp on January 31.
This is the best index of Latin America, in a ranking where the podium is completed Chili (1.36 bp) and Peru (1.62). They follow closely Paraguay (1.81), Brazil (2.05) and Guatemala (2.13).
At the other end appears Venezuela, with an EMBI of 228.45 basis points, by far the worst in the table. They follow him Argentina (19.54), Bolivia (19,20) and Ecuador (15,29).
The yellow lights that light up on the horizon
Beyond the good performance of Uruguayan country risk, Some analysts anticipate that the possible approval of the plebiscite that drives the PIT-CNT on social security reform could negatively impact the indicator and even lead to the loss of the investor grade.
One of the exponents of this thinking is the CEO of Ceres, Ignacio Munyo, who anticipated that this modification in the retirement system could impact the investment grade. “Uruguay he obtained it after the pension reform of 1997, he lost it with the 2002 crisis, he recovered it a decade later and he solidified it only now thanks to the pension reform underway,” he argued.
On the other hand, he compared the system proposed by the PIT-CNT with what happened in Argentina and pointed out that “the Argentine mirror of Kirchnerism reflects a disastrous image of the consequences,” recalling that in that country, after the end of the AFJP, “automatically, the risk rating dropped several notches and there was a sharp rise in the risk country”.
Source: Ambito
