The market expected six months ago that the current price would be close to those values, but the currency is stuck at $39.
He dollar in Uruguay remains far from the expectations of economic agents and the only day in which it managed to exceed 40 pesos during 2023 is increasingly distant. After a new decline and a relative stability between ups and downs that keep it “ironed” in the range of 39 pesos, it still maintains a positive annual balance.
Three and a half months passed since that day in which the dollar It managed to climb to the 40 peso range after an October that marked the best month of all of 2023 and allowed a large part of the value lost by the currency to be reversed until then. November 1 was the only day on which the price reached that price throughout last year—numbers that, in turn, had not been achieved since the end of December 2022.
However, optimism for a considerable correction of the exchange delay It was short-lived, since on November 2 the dollar had already fallen, and that month ended up marking the first monthly decline since May.
Now, in mid-February, the US currency is still far from market expectations which, according to the latest Economic Expectations Survey (EEE) of the Bank Central of Uruguay (BCU)should be closer to the 39.38 pesos expected for the end of January than to the 39.102 at which it closed yesterday.
What was expected from the exchange market six months ago?
In the Economic Expectations Survey published in September, the six-month forecast for February marked a median of 39.55 pesos, and only the most optimistic dared to give a forecast above 40 pesos, placing the possible price at 40 .5 pesos. On the other hand, in the August edition – whose six-month projection corresponded to January – the expected value was 40 pesos.
The downward adjustment of the forecasts from one month to the next responded, mostly, to the fact that the dollar It continued to have erratic behavior and barely stayed within the 38 peso range. In fact, on September 13 it reached its highest value in two months, and it was 38,281 pesos. The fourth decade seemed something far away.
But, six months later, it is still an unattainable projection for the price in the local market. With yesterday’s 0.21% drop, the dollar It closed at 39,102 pesos and the monthly balance accumulates a decline of 0.16%. In any case, economic agents continue to expect a median price of 40.25 pesos at the end of June and 41.40 pesos by the end of the year.
Source: Ambito
