It will reach 3%, according to a LatinFocus survey, whose average is below the forecasts of the MEF and the BCU.
He growth of the Uruguayan economy will reach 3% in 2024, according to the latest survey LatinFocus, which placed the country above the regional average, although below the levels expected by the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) and the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU).
In any case, the projections of the economists, agencies and banks consulted by the survey, published by El País, revised their perspectives upwards, using the recovery data of the GDP seasonally adjusted, the end of the drought and the improvement of exports.
Among the responses, the growth highest expected was 3.9% (Torino Capital), similar to the 4% projected by the BCU and the 3.7% expected by the MEF, while the minimum was 2% (Barclays Capital).
In any case, the direction of the Uruguayan economy enters the podium of the greatest growth, only surpassed by Venezuela and Paraguay, for which banks and consulting firms expect an improvement of 4.3% and 3.7%, respectively.
In this regard, what the MEF defines this Wednesday will be important, since the minister Azucena Arbeleche will appear to speak on the tax situation and the macroeconomic perspectives, a meeting in which the growth projections could be updated.
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The signals that economic activity gives
Activity has been showing signs of recovery in recent months and a faithful witness to that is the latest Monthly Economic Activity Indicator (IMAE) of the BCU, which reflected a seasonally adjusted increase of 2% in November, which reached 5.1% year-on-year, with a cycle trend of 0.4%.
Added to these data is the perspective provided by the Ceres Leading Index (ILC), which in its last measurement grew by 0.2% and has been rising for four consecutive months, which may be a predictor of the level of activity.
However, we will have to see what analysis is done Arbeleche together with the economic team next week, in which the new Economic Expectations Survey of the BCU, where a positive variation of 3.30% is currently projected for the GDP.
Source: Ambito
