He exchange rate so far this year it has been perceiving downward trends; However, the projections of the famous pollster, Latinfocus, They estimate an increase in the value of dollar showing a consensus between 40 and 45 pesos by the end of 2024.
According to the last Economic Expectations Survey (EEA) of Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) the value of dollar It will be 41.40 pesos at the end of December, according to the median of the responses, a value 0.48% lower than the 41.60 pesos estimated in December. Meanwhile, an improvement of 2.97% is expected for the first semester, with a price of 40.25 pesos at the end of June.
In agreement with the estimates of the central bankthe survey of latinfocus February projects for this year between 40 and 45 pesos, based on the valuations of the 13 most important firms in the world.
How much will the dollar rise this year?
Taking into account the 13 different estimates from each firm, the Latinfocus survey reached a consensus of $41.42 for the end of this year, with $38.5 being the minimum and $44.83 the maximum.
The most encouraging projections correspond to Moody’s Analytics, which expects a rise of $44.83, while the Institute of Economics expects a value of $42.5. This is followed by Oikos and BBVA Argentina with $42.12 and $42.3, respectively.
Meanwhile, the slightly more moderate projections correspond to the Torino Capital with $41.46, Barclays Capital and Itau Unibanco with $41 dollar value. Also found is EConsulting teams with $41.4 and The Economist Intelligence Unit with $41.45.
The worst projections correspond to Oxford Economics and Fitch Ratings with $40.83 and $40.1, while HBSC estimated the least encouraging projection at $38.5.
The international dollar rises and the Uruguayan dollar rises
The US currency is not only below the 39.38 pesos expected for the end of January, but economic agents were expecting an upward trend.
Three and a half months passed since that day in which the dollar It managed to climb to the 40 peso range after an October that marked the best month of all of 2023 and allowed a large part of the value lost by the currency to be reversed until then. November 1 was the only day on which the price reached that price throughout last year—numbers that, in turn, had not been achieved since the end of December 2022.
Meanwhile, in the international market, the dollar was operating stable this Monday. He index dollar it was trading slightly below 104.64, just below the three-month high of 104.97 reached last Wednesday.
At the moment, the interbank is far from that level and this week will be important, since the BCU will release important reports, such as economic and inflation expectations, but will also meet Copom to define the level of the interest rates.
Source: Ambito
