The US currency fell despite the stability in global markets and continues to decline in the range of 39 pesos.
He dollar in Uruguay continues in its streak of ups and downs and inconsistencies with the international market, and opened the exchange week with a drop that left it one step closer to falling from the 39 peso range, despite the stability of the currency globally.
There do not seem to be recipes to predict what will happen to the dollar in the local market: despite the fact that during 2023 the price against the peso followed the general movements of what happened with the currency in the international market — the percentage of value lost during the year was very similar in both scenarios, 2, 62% in Uruguay and 2.14% in the world, compared to a basket of six currencies—; During the beginning of 2024, the national exchange rate does not find its way in relation to the dollar index. And much less does it manage to catch up with the expectations of economic agents.
In fact, yesterday’s close fell again – after a week marked by constant ups and downs – by 0.14% compared to Friday, and closed at 39,082 pesos, according to data from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU). The concern is that, once again, the greenback is approaching the range of 38 pesos when, according to market projections, it should not be far from at least 39.5 pesos.
Meanwhile, February accumulates a monthly decline of 0.21%, although the general good performance of January helps to balance the devaluation and ensure a slight increase of 0.15% so far in 2024. The difference with the end of 2023 is just 0.06 pesos.
Uncertainty due to the difference with the global dollar
At a global level, meanwhile, the dollar remained stable at the beginning of the week because the US markets They remained closed for the Presidents’ Day holiday in that country. However, last week it registered its fifth consecutive increase and the dollar index It rose another 0.18% to reach 104.23 units, after having reached its highest level since mid-November on Tuesday.
Although analysts agree in pointing out the good moment of the US currency, they do not consider that it is going through an exceptional moment, but rather a correction while waiting for greater certainties from the Federal Reserve (Fed) regarding the direction of its monetary policy. In that sense, tomorrow the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)so, surely, there will be new movements.
At the local level, the uncertainty is not so much what will happen to US interest rates, but rather how the dollar will react in the Uruguayan markets to what happens globally. This is because, so far this year, the currency has not been able to replicate international movements. The most recent example is last week, where in USA The greenback had a positive performance, while in Uruguay It alternated days of rise and fall, almost interchangeably.
Yesterday, with stability due to the closure of the markets, it even fell.
Source: Ambito
