He Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) reported that the analysts it consults monthly corrected upwards the inflation expectations for 2024 and they expect a CPI above the target range established by the government, which ranges between 3 and 6%.
This arises from the median of responses, which predicts a inflation of 6.30% for the calendar year, above the ceiling targeted by the monetary authority, as a result of an acceleration of the indicator in the final part of the year, something that had been anticipated by some specialists at the beginning of the year.
Specifically, the analysts consulted by the BCU They indicated that they expect a CPI of 0.70% for this month, which would reach 2.95% in the February-July period and 6.20% in the next 12 months.
Furthermore, they projected a inflation 6%, in line with the ceiling of the target range, in the monetary horizon, both for next year and for 2026, thus maintaining last month’s forecast.
What are analysts’ projections about the value of the dollar?
On the other hand, the BCU presented the Economic Expectations Survey (EEA), where analysts projected a dollar to 39.20 pesos by the end of the month, a value somewhat higher than the current one, correcting its value downwards by 0.46% compared to last month’s forecast.
Meanwhile, they expect the note to trade at 40.20 pesos in the next 6 months and to reach 41.40 pesos at the end of the year, maintaining the expectation they had at the start of 2024 about the behavior of the US currency.
Finally, in relation to the economic activity, They estimated the growth of GDP by 0.48% for 2023, while they project an increase of 3.25% for this year, less than the 3.5% expected by the government, as announced today by the Minister of Economy and Finance, Azucena Arbeleche. In addition, they foresee an improvement of 2.50% by 2025.
Source: Ambito
