He dollar in Uruguay achieved its first increase in the week and moved away from the imminent risk of falling to the range of 38 pesos, although it remains far from the expectations of economic agents and contrary to international movements.
With a rise of 0.11% at the close of trading on Wednesday, the dollar It marked a relief in the local price after two consecutive drops that brought it closer to the range of 38 pesos. In this way, he managed to stay at 39 pesos, continuing with the up-and-down behavior that makes him virtually “ironing”.
According to the data of the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU)With the slight recovery, the currency closed at 39.097 pesos, and raised the accumulated positive so far this year to 0.19%. However, if only the variations in February are considered, the result shows a decline of 0.17% monthly. Likewise, so far in 2024, the US currency could barely be valued at 0.08 pesos.
According to the new survey, agents hope that the dollar closed February at a median price of 39.20 pesos; and they maintain a certain optimism for the rest of the year, as they expect that in July it will reach 40.20 pesos – despite the fact that the currency only reached the range of 40 pesos once in all of 2023 – and that in December it will end around 41.40 pesos.
On the other hand, this afternoon the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) for the first time in 2024, and together with the interest rates Reference values will also determine, more or less voluntarily, what can happen to the dollar in the short and medium term.
In that sense, if the organization decides to continue the cuts cycle that predominated in 2023, it is possible that the exchange rate has a greater margin to recover against a peso that still remains strong and with high returns —while the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) is four points above the inflation from January. On the other hand, if it pauses the declines, the currency could remain, in principle, “ironed” as it has been until now.
What is happening internationally?
Meanwhile, it is striking that, while in Uruguay he dollar achieved a slight rise, in the world the US currency fell again after the Federal Reserve (Fed) publish the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in which it decided to keep rates unchanged.
The documents showed that most central bank policymakers remain concerned about the risks of cutting interest rates too soon, so traders reinforced bets that the first cuts will not occur until June.
Given this, the dollar index It fell 0.04% to 104.00 units, after having reached almost a minimum in the month when it touched 103.79 units on Tuesday.
Source: Ambito
