The US currency closed on Monday with a recovery that brings it closer to the 39.23 pesos that economic agents expect for the end of the month.
He dollar in Uruguay The week began with a positive movement, despite the fact that in the world, the currency fell while awaiting various relevant data on the economy of USA and more clues about the speed with which the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates.
Shortly there was left dollar of the range of 38 pesos at the end of last week, whose “end to end” balance had closed with a minus sign. However, and despite the fact that the international scenario did not seem favorable for any type of recovery, no matter how minimal, with the opening of the local exchange market, The US currency achieved a rise of 0.22%.
In this way, and according to the official quote of the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU), the greenback closed at 39,148 pesos, after two consecutive days of decline. Likewise, the positive movement was not enough to completely reverse the accumulated decline of February, which is 0.04%.
The case of the annual balance sheet is different, as the dollar It has a positive difference of 0.13 pesos (0.32%) compared to the last exchange day of 2023. The provisional conclusion is that the currency remains “ironed” and, above all, without being able to meet the expectations of economic agents. .
On this last point, it is still possible that the exchange rate catches up with what was recorded in the last Economic Expectations Survey (EEE) from the BCU, while the median of the responses was one dollar at 39.23 pesos at the end of February. In this regard, and if the greenback manages to maintain its positive behavior in the coming days, it could be possible to see, for the first time in months, that the effective price coincides with the expected one.
A week of data and movements
Meanwhile, in the global exchange market The opposite of what happens at the local level continues to occur: dollar index closed with a drop of 0.2%, and was quoted at 103.78 units at the beginning of a week full of data that will be key to determining, or at least intuiting, the speed with which the Fed will cut interest rates.
In any case, and with the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Still “hot”, operators continue to bet that the first cut will occur only in June – when just weeks ago, March won first place in expectations.
The publication of data on durable goods in the United States that will be today, along with the personal consumption price index (PCE) —the preferred measure of inflation Fed— which will be known on Thursday, could once again inflate optimism in the market or, on the contrary, finish cooling exchange bets.
Source: Ambito
