He dollar in Uruguay remains “ironed” at the minimum of the range of 39 pesos while the local exchange market awaits the impact that the macroeconomic data in USA may have on the currency at a global level, as well as the one generated by the pause in interest rate cuts at the local level.
He dollar recorded a new increase yesterday, although it was only 0.01%, managing to improve the price from 39,148 pesos with which it closed on Tuesday to the 39,153 pesos with which it ended on Wednesday, according to official data from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU).
Although it continues to approach the value that the market expects for the end of the month —39.23 pesos, according to the latest Economic Expectations Survey (EEE) of the BCU—, the truth is that the value of the US currency remains virtually “ironed”, either due to the various ups and downs that it goes through – which compensate each other –, or due to minimal movements such as the one recorded on the day of yesterday.
Also, the dollar accumulates a drop of 0.03% so far in February, although at an annual level it manages to add the positive balance January to accumulate an increase of 0.34% compared to the end of 2023.
Between US data and no rate cuts
Meanwhile, at the international level, dollar index another increase was noted, albeit slight, although greater than that recorded for the currency in Uruguay: 0.08% to close at 103.86 units, compared to a basket of six prominent world currencies.
This happened even after it became known that, in the United States, requests for manufactured durable goods recorded their biggest drop in almost four years in January, amid a sharp decline in commercial aircraft bookings, while the outlook for business investment in capital goods was mixed.
In turn, the Consumer confidence index fell to 106.7 in February, less than expected, compared to a downwardly revised 110.9 in January.
Tomorrow, meanwhile, the basic personal consumption price index (PCE)one of the most important data of the week for the market as it is the one that most takes into account the Federal Reserve (Fed) when defining your monetary politics. Forecasts point to an increase of 0.4%, while the central bank is expected to have its first rate cut only in June.
In any case, and regarding the value of the dollar, Analysts consider that the result of the PCE would have to be significantly different from the projections for it to influence the price.
At the local level, meanwhile, the pause decided by the BCU in the cycle of cuts of the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) can help maintain the exchange rate without major changes, especially upwards, which is what the exporting sectors demand to improve the competitiveness from the country.
Source: Ambito
