The forecasting consortium assumes that the downward trend in the number of cases will continue in the next few days, but will also slow down increasingly. In the hospitals, the number of patients – especially high in the western federal states – will decline. However, the experts make it clear that the current development is likely to be the “calm before the storm”.
Because of Omikron, new high is likely soon
In this week’s preview, the panel of experts leaves no doubt as to what the appearance of the Omikron variant will mean. Accordingly, based on the evidence available to date on the increased transmissibility of the virus variant, it is to be expected that the virus variant will be “widespread”. In the opinion of the consortium, this means that – as stated in the forecast – “with a high degree of probability […] the previous high level of new infections in the fourth wave of epidemics “will be clearly exceeded if the evidence available to date is confirmed.” Under pessimistic assumptions, this could occur as early as early January, “warn the experts.
On November 19 – the peak of the fourth wave – more than 15,800 new infections were recorded in Austria within 24 hours. So if the development feared by the experts proves to be true, more than 16,000 infections per day could be expected in a few weeks. The panel of experts does not want to judge what this means for the hospitals. “The effects on the hospital flooring cannot yet be assessed due to a lack of evidence. The forecasting consortium is currently working on medium-term scenarios in order to be able to better quantify the risk,” he explains.
According to the model calculations, the number of infections will in any case decrease by Christmas. Next Wednesday (December 22nd) a seven-day incidence of between 160 and 270 cases per 100,000 inhabitants is to be expected in Austria. The lowest incidence is to be expected in Burgenland (80 to 140 cases per 100,000 inhabitants); Vienna, Lower Austria and Styria could also be below the Austrian average. Vorarlberg (380 to 630) and Tyrol and Upper Austria (180 to 300 each) have to be prepared for the highest incidences. As far as the daily new infections are concerned, these will probably be between just under 2,100 and 3,450 across Austria on December 22nd. Today, Wednesday, 4,224 new infections with SARS-CoV-2 were reported within 24 hours, the seven-day incidence was according to data from the Ministry of Health and Interior at 294.3.
A total of 2,280 Covid sufferers were treated in hospitals on Wednesday, 560 of them in intensive care units. Next Wednesday (December 22nd) there should be between 373 and 463 intensive care patients with Covid-19, in the following week (December 29th) between 270 and 390. So there will be a noticeable decrease in severe cases by the turn of the year inpatient Covid-19 cases. The number of patients in the normal Covid wards should also decrease, from currently 1,720 to 1,140 to 1,500 next Wednesday and 790 to 1,280 on December 29th.
However, there will be considerable regional differences in the utilization of hospitals. While the probability that the system-critical utilization limit of a third of the total capacity in the ICU area will be reached next Wednesday in Vienna, Lower Austria, Upper Austria, Styria and Salzburg is below 0.5 percent, according to the forecasting consortium in Vorarlberg it is 50 and in Tyrol 25 percent. Just these two federal states – besides Burgenland – had immediately opened the catering and hotel business for vaccinated people after the end of the fourth hard lockdown at the beginning of the week, while others were still waiting.
Source: Nachrichten
