The exports would grow up to 14% this year thanks to the rebound effect in the agricultural sector, that leaves behind the consequences of drought, and the launch of UPM 2, according to a report by Uruguay XXI which anticipates the expected sales level for 2024.
After the placements start the year with two positive months and accumulate four improvements in five months, the prospects are encouraging for the coming months, although with attention focused on the international prices and the expectation of reaching exports for a total of 13,000 million dollars.
In the survey, it was highlighted that during 2023 the drought strongly affected the exports of the agro, to the point that the soy implied a reduction of 11.5 billion dollars, while sales of meat implied a reduction of 500 million, due to lower prices and lower demand since China.
Despite that, the beef It was the main product exported last year, with 18% of the total, followed by cellulose (17%). Further back, with 7%, the dairy and the drinks, while the soy was left with a 4% participation, like the wood and the meat byproducts.
Soybeans and cellulose, essential for 2024
From Uruguay XXI they anticipated that the exports of goods will have a clear recovery in 2024 and the soy will play a crucial role, with a planting area that exceeded 1.3 million hectares, the highest in the last 9 years, going from 770,000 tons to 3.2 million.
However, the good harvest occurs in parallel with prices adjusting downwards, due to a market with high stocks and demand growing below supply.
Added to this is the boost from the third plant of cellulose installed last year in the country, UPM Paso de los Toros. With one year of full operation, an increase of 35% is expected in exports, for a total of 4.7 million tons.
In this way, the cellulose will become the main export product of Uruguay, which becomes one of the main world exporters, only behind Brazil, United States and Canada.
Despite the fourth consecutive year of growth in the sector, this improvement will be partially offset by lower prices in the BHKP cellulose, that during the first half of 2024 they will be below the values of 2023.
What will happen to beef?
Finally, the report referred to the prospects for the beef in 2024, with the expectation that there will be sales of around 2,160 million, which would represent an increase of 5% year-on-year.
The improvement would be mainly due to greater slaughter and normal weather conditions, although Uruguay XXI warned that China will continue to negatively impact the prices placed, while it is expected that higher sales towards United States and Canada partially offset this drop.
Source: Ambito
