He dollar in Uruguay It started the week positively, with an increase that allowed it to almost completely recover the value lost during the first day of March. Internationally, both the US currency and stocks fell, driven by the cooling of traders’ expectations regarding the direction of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) in monetary policy; while bitcoin hit a new high in the last two years.
He dollar wants to return to the range of 39 pesos despite the fact that analysts agree that the exchange rate is “ironing”. In this way, and with an increase of 0.18% compared to the close of last week, the currency was quoted at 38.998 pesos, according to data from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU).
Although the monthly and annual balances are still negative—in March it accumulated a decline of 0.18%, after falling 0.3% in February; while so far in 2024, the decrease is 0.06%—; The performance of the currency yesterday allowed it to get within 0.002 pesos of returning to the range of 39 pesos, in which it is virtually “ironed” during this year.
In that sense, from the Economic Research Center (Cinve) they explained to Ambit that this behavior of little real movement in the price responds, on the one hand, to the incentive to maintain assets in pesos due to differences in interest rates, as well as the contractionary monetary policy carried out by the BCU and the genuine income of foreign currency during the previous year in the form of foreign direct investment (FDI).
In any case, it is worth remembering that, at the beginning of the year, analysts’ projections did not provide major improvements for the exchange rate in the local market, not only because of the internal conditions that pressure or hold back the dollar, but also by the decisions of the Fed around the cuts in reference interest rates, and their effect on the currency globally.
Global dollar and stocks fall, while bitcoin breaks records
He dollar at a global level, while—and unlike what happened in Uruguay-, It closed with a fall at the beginning of a week that is characterized by its high levels of information at the door, which can affect the behavior of international currencies.
In that sense, the dollar index It fell 0.03% to 103.83 units, falling against the euro but recovering some ground against the yen.
“The currency markets “They are operating very cautiously given the large amount of new information this week,” he told Reuters. Helen Givenof Monex USA in Washington. “No one wants to be surprised, so I would be surprised if the flows do not remain moderate in the first half of the week,” he added, giving an account of the possible scenario for this week.
In this regard, in USA, the president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, He will testify before lawmakers on Wednesday and Thursday, and on Friday the payroll report will be released, with forecasts pointing to a still solid increase of 200,000 after the spectacular increase of 353,000 in January. This week also celebrates “Super Tuesday”, the most important day of the US presidential primary calendar
Along with some intense days for him dollar, the news from China – nothing significant, so investors were disappointed – led global stocks that had just hit recent highs on Tuesday after signs of short-term rate maintenance; Meanwhile he bitcoin hit a two-year high of $68,828, just short of a new record.
On the other hand, the Petroleum fell slightly as demand headwinds offset producer group extension of voluntary production cuts through mid-year OPEC+.
Source: Ambito
