He dollar in Uruguay achieved a small rebound after its fourth consecutive downward week and with the worst monthly value so far this year, but it is still far from recovering what it set back in a third year in a row with downward trend of the currency.
The 0.14% increase allowed the dollar in the local exchange market to recover some of the value lost during the past week—which had three consecutive declines—although it was not enough to return to the 39 peso range. With a closing price of 38,811 pesos, according to official data from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) The US currency also remains far from the expectations of economic agents who, by the end of February, expected an exchange rate of around 39.20 pesos.
Likewise, the greenback has accumulated a depreciation of 0.6% so far in March, double what it lost in February, deepening the weak trend of the dollar in the country already warned by analysts and that could not even adapt to the good moment of the currency internationally. Now, on the other hand, the dollar index It is also going through a moment marked by falls, and on Friday it closed with a minimum value in two months.
Meanwhile, the year also maintains a negative balance, with a cumulative decline of 0.54%, showing that although the main characteristic of this first quarter is a behavior “ironing” of the dollar, The US currency continues to progressively decline against the peso.
The exchange rate delay, again at the center of concerns
It never stopped being a problem, those affected would say, since the country has had 24 consecutive months of loss of competitiveness, and the exchange rate is key in this. However, in recent weeks, concern has once again taken center stage, in a context of electoral campaigns that are beginning and after the government did not mention the issue in its economic accountability.
The productive and exporting sectors are the ones that took advantage of the traditional agroindustrial exhibitions at the beginning of the year to warn about the exchange delay which, in addition, could be deepened—or, at least, would not see positive changes—with the decision of the BCU to prioritize inflation control based on a pause in the cuts of the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR).
According to official data, the real exchange rate of the dollar in Uruguay It is almost 16% below its fundamentals, a figure higher than the 11% admitted by the government in December 2022, when agricultural complaints on the issue were frequent.
In that sense, “the exchange delay “It is real and has a strong impact on the country’s competitiveness,” said the president of the Rice Growers Association (ACA), Alfredo Lagoduring the launch of the cereal harvest over the weekend and in front of the President of the Republic, Luis Lacalle Pou.
A few days before, the president of the Rural Association of Uruguay (ARU), Patricio Cortabarría, had advanced to Ambit that the union would raise this issue with the presidential candidates during the campaign.
Meanwhile, the fiscal and opening measures They are increasingly at the center of the debate as a possible solution to the exchange rate delay that is already dragging a fall in the dollar of 10.35% in 2022, 2.62% in 2023 and a partial 0.54% so far this year. 2024.
Source: Ambito
