The global dollar resumes its growth path while operators confirm that the currency will continue with high returns in the face of the increasingly diminishing possibilities that the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) make a sharp change in your monetary policy; and had a good rise thanks to the US treasury bonds. In Uruguay, however, the scenario is the opposite.
After a week of economic data less positive than expected for the United States economy, which began with a inflation higher than projected and, yesterday, confirmed the trend with a greater increase in production prices than expected, the dollar is strengthened once again at a global level.
At the close of business yesterday, the dollar index —which compares the currency with a basket of six other international currencies— rose 0.58%, its largest increase in more than a month, and was quoted at 103.36 units. While with the opening of the markets today, it recorded another partial increase of 0.07% and climbed a little more to 103.45 units.
However, the behavior of the greenback responded mainly to the performance of the US treasury bonds —treasuries—, which today remained close to the 4.3% level that it reached on Thursday for the first time in the month, after marking its biggest increase in three months by improving by more than 10 basis points.
“At the margins, price pressures appear more stubborn, and the disinflation process is taking longer than expected,” he explained. Kyle Rodda market analyst Capital.com, to the Reuters agency.
On that note, futures markets reduced the odds of a June policy easing to 60%, from around 67% late on Wednesday, according to the LSEG Rate Probability App. For 2024, the market expects fewer than three rate cuts, down from three or four two weeks ago.
A contrary collapse in the Uruguayan exchange market
He dollar in Uruguay, Meanwhile, it not only moved in the opposite direction to the US currency globally, but also plummeted 0.61%. Practically the same value as the dollar index recovered, the local exchange rate lost it.
In this way, and according to the official quote of the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU)the currency closed its third consecutive day of decline at 38,404 pesos, not only being far from the expectations of economic agents, but also close to the range of 37 pesos.
After maintaining a relatively “ironing” At the beginning of the year, the US currency began to fall in recent days and accumulated a depreciation 1.65% so far in March, after having reached its lowest value yesterday since September 26, 2023, when it was worth 38,285 pesos.
Source: Ambito
