The exports of goods from Uruguay recorded a drop in the first fifteen days of March, in comparison with the same period in 2023, both considering exported energy and without considering the placement of the energy sector.
“Poor performance of Uruguayan exports.” This is how the doctor in International Relations and director of the Institute of International Business (INI) of the Catholic University of Uruguay (UCU), Ignacio Bartesaghi, throught social media.
In his comment, the analyst shared the survey carried out by the INI based on registered export requests, which allows us to observe a decrease of 5.1% in exports of goods without free zones during the first half of March, relative to the same time period last year. If external sales of electric power In comparison, loans decreased by 2.2%.
This decline takes on a greater dimension if one considers that March 2023 was a month in which exports fell due to the impact of the drought on the agro-export sector—especially soybeans—and in which low Chinese demand also became apparent. feel.
However, Bartesaghi considered that the partial result observed in the data is far from being decisive for the final value of the month, which will be known in the first days of April, when all shipments and exchanges of goods abroad are weighted. . This is because, in addition to not taking into account the free zones, the INE data is only based on export requests and in a very short period of time to anticipate the performance at the end of the month.
In any case, if the trend continues in the coming days, it could be an alarm signal in a sector that was beginning to recover after a 2023 of low returns.
Present with doubts, projections with optimism
Although the partial results of the placements may raise at least some concerns, a report from Uruguay XXI He anticipated that exports would grow up to 14% thanks to the rebound effect of the agricultural sector and the launch of UPM 2 at its full capacity.
After the placements start the year with two positive months and accumulate four improvements in five months, the prospects are encouraging for the coming months, although with attention focused on the international prices and the expectation of reaching exports for a total of 13,000 million dollars.
In that sense, since Uruguay XXI They anticipated that the exports of goods will have a clear recovery in 2024 and the soy will play a crucial role, with a planting area that exceeded 1.3 million hectares, the highest in the last 9 years, going from 770,000 tons to 3.2 million.
However, the good harvest occurs in parallel with prices adjusting downwards, due to a market with high stocks and demand growing below supply.
Added to this is the boost from the third plant of cellulose installed last year in the country, UPM Paso de los Toros. With one year of full operation, an increase of 35% is expected in exports, for a total of 4.7 million tons.
In this way, the cellulose will become the main export product of Uruguay, which becomes one of the main world exporters, only behind Brazil, United States and Canada.
Source: Ambito
