The polarization that is so characterizing the campaign for the elections 2024 in Uruguay It even reached the surveys: within hours of each other, two of the country’s largest consulting firms showed a completely different scenario regarding the Broad Front, going from an almost defined scenario to a strongly competitive one.
A survey of Consulting Teams, published in the last few hours, showed that the presidential candidate Carolina Cosse begins to approach Yamandu Orsi. In spontaneous preferences, the former mayor of cannelloni reaches 35%, against 30% of the mayor of Montevideo in license use, both very far from the senator’s 2% Mario Bergara, of the former president Jose Mujica (who will not be a candidate) and a percentage less than 1% of the mayor of Salto, Andres Lima.
However, the scenario becomes strongly competitive in the guided question, with the scenario of the four pre-candidates. It’s just that there Orsi climbs to 45%, while cosse reaches 44%, generating a technical tie between the two, being very far from the 7% of Bergara and 2% of Lime.
It is worth clarifying that the spontaneous responses represent a hard core of the leaders, while the “guided” form, the positions are less solid and could change in the coming months. The Consulting Teams survey was carried out between February 15 and 27, combining a face-to-face and telephone methodology, with a sample of residents over 18 years of age in towns with more than 2,000 inhabitants throughout the national territory, with 176 sample points throughout the country.
On the other hand, a survey carried out by Factum Earlier it showed that Orsi grew in voting intention and reached 51% of the total, clearly surpassing Cosse, who has 36%. Further back, but more competitive than in the other survey, Bergara (8%) and Lima (5%) appear.
In this case, it is a survey with a universe of 900 cases carried out by cell phone, with a structured questionnaire with a prevalence of closed questions carried out from February 20 to March 2. In this way, both surveys are prior to the complaint of aggression by a trans woman against the former mayor of Canelones, a factor that could affect the June elections.
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The undecided represent a key factor in the FA internal
As happens in every vote, especially those that are close, the level of undecided It can be key to turning luck towards one side or the other. In this case, they take on even greater prominence because 27% gave the answer “don’t know” or “none” when asked who they were going to vote for, according to the Consulting Teams survey.
In this way, practically 1 in 4 FA voters still do not express spontaneous preferences, a large mass that can define the candidate in the face of the elections. general elections October.
The new disparity between both surveys is curious, since Factum’s showed 0% undecided, with voters choosing one of the four pre-candidates.
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Álvaro Delgado sweeps the National Party
Finally, in the Consulting Teams survey, the internal National Party, with Alvaro Delgado positioned as the great favorite, with 47% of the responses to the spontaneous question, followed by Laura Raffo, with 12%; Jorge Gandini, with 3%; and Juan Sartori, with 1%.
In the guided preferences, the former Secretary of the Presidency reaches 57% of the mentions, far exceeding the 23% that Raffo reaches. In this scenario Sartori grows at 7%, Gandini reaches 4% and appears Carlos Iafigliola, with 1%.
Source: Ambito
