He Center for Development Studies (CED) held its first breakfast meeting to analyze the economic and political situation with the presence of its director, the economist Hernan Bonillaand the director of the consulting firm Equipment, Ignacio Zuasnabar. Both specialists took a look at the scenario of the current coalition government in its final stretch and the projections towards an election that is being held as a couple.
Bonilla compared the international and regional scenario and then entered the local terrain. The expert defined Brazil as “a positive surprise” in the last year regarding its economic growth and framed the reality of Argentina in “enormous uncertainty” with signs of rapid rise in prices and acceleration of the inflation from the beginning of the government of Javier Milei. In any case, he valued the expectations that the neighboring country will get out of this critical situation, eliminating the exchange rate and aspects of the economy that he defined as “excessively protected.”
About him Uruguay, the economist defined the closing numbers for 2023 as “positive in general terms” despite the fact that the economy “was practically stagnant.” “Despite bad data from the gross domestic product (GDP)40,000 jobs were created and for the first time in a decade the real salary and the employment. That had not happened for more than 10 years and it is an encouraging fact along with the drop in inflation, which from the traditional 8% that we had been experiencing for many years went to a level of around 5%,” he expressed.
Regarding 2024, Bonilla considered that the economy “will have a rebound because last year’s decline was mainly due to the drought of the first semester and already in the second semester of last year it began to grow and this year we are seeing that it will grow at 4%.”
The CED raises the need for a series of reforms for the immediate future. “We are considering eliminating the consular fee, lowering the tariff, release import of different products. I think there is a pro-competition agenda “It is very important that it would lower the cost of living of Uruguayans and that will also make the economy more competitive,” he explained.
“The populist bomb” of social security
The director of the CED defined the signature collection campaign promoted by the PIT-CNT to repeal the social security reform as a “populist bomb.” “The referendum proposes lowering the retirement age again, which is being gradually increased to 65 years to return it to 60, raising the minimum retirement to the minimum wage and eliminating the AFAPs, which would imply confiscating the money that workers have saved today. But in addition to that, which in itself is very negative, it would imply a fiscal hole that is very difficult for the next government to face,” he diagnosed.
“We are talking about the VAT It would have to go from 22 points to more than 30 points in the coming period. That is unfeasible. So, I believe that the referendum that is being proposed on social security is a populist bomb that is very far from what the political proposals in the country have always been. Uruguay. We have to become aware that it really is something very dangerous, very off the map and very un-Uruguayan,” Hernán Bonilla warned.
Frente Amplio Carolina Cosse, Mario Bergara, Andrés Lima and Yamandú Orsi.jpg
The political map: an even election with an advantage for the FA
In turn, political scientist Ignacio Zuasnabar, director of the consulting firm Equipos Consultores, presented the numbers from the latest survey carried out that shows an even scenario heading into the next October elections, with a slight advantage for the Wide Front (FA). “It is not such a strong advantage that we can say that it is closed. It seems that the alternatives that are on the table do not generate great uncertainties for the majority of the electorate. There is a sense of tranquility in the average Uruguayan that, if there is a continuity of officialdomthe country is going to function more or less well, and that, if there is a return of the Frente Amplio, it can also function more or less well,” he clarified.
“Leaders are under construction. This is a third peculiarity of the election, because there is an enormous renewal in terms of candidates. There are very few exceptions of candidates who repeat and that also generates a framework of uncertainty. On the one hand, with less enthusiasm, because several of the greats are no longer there historical leaderships. On the other hand, it is also attractive to meet these new candidates, of which one of them will be the next president of the Republic,” he added.
Regarding the internal elections of June 30, Zuasnabar considered that “no internal elections are closed.” “In the Frente Amplio there is a very even situation with a leadership of Yamandu Orsibut a very competitive situation with Carolina Cosse. In it National Party a majority in favor of Alvaro Delgado. In it Colorado Partythere is a situation of enormous fragmentation with a significant lack of knowledge of several of the candidates on the part of the electorate, so it is an internal situation about which no prediction can be made,” he explained.
The political scientist concluded his intervention by warning that at the moment there are no clear definitions as to whether there would be parliamentary majority or even if the election can be defined in one or two electoral rounds. “The requirement in Uruguay For the election to be decided in the first round it is very high, it has to be 50% plus one of the votes cast, including blank and null votes. So, obviously, although for the parliamentary majority the requirement is a little lower, for the second round the requirement is higher, but one would say, mathematically, with so many voters to be defined, it is not impossible for an election to be defined in the first round. ”, concluded the Equipment Director.
Source: Ambito
