The possibility of a return of the phenomenon The girl alerts the Uruguayan agricultural sector that suffered the consequences of the lack of rain in previous years; However, experts assure that the conditions are not the same and give a hopeful vision for the field in this upcoming spring/summer season.
According to a report from Climate Prediction Center, the transition of The boy It would occur between the months of April and June of this year with a probability of 83%, which will have conditions close to neutrality. However, during the months of June and August a return of The girl by 62%.
However, Bidegain assured that it has no relation to the phenomenon of years ago. “Most models explain that it will be a weak to moderate La Niña. For this reason, it would be expected that the impacts on precipitation would be scarce, nothing like what we had in previous periods,” he explained, although he also highlighted that these models are given eight months before the period, so their predictions are not the same. all exact.
In coincidence, Guadalupe Tiscornia, coordinator of Information systems and digital transformation of the National Institute of Agricultural Research (INIA), confirmed that it is a common trend that, after an El Niño storm, La Niña returns.
“It is still too early to be able to determine what intensity it will have and if this trend actually continues to show the same because there are some blockages in the models for this period. Only in the winter can we have greater certainty about what will happen with the event. The girl” he explained.
It’s not all said
The biologist explained that to determine that there is a La Niña storm, we will first have to study the temperature levels of the ocean, then we have to study how this phenomenon is coupled with the atmosphere and, subsequently, see what impact it will have on the Uruguay.
An example of the unpredictability of determining these types of events was precisely this year’s El Niño storm. “Not all storms The boy are the same nor are those of The girl. For this first/last summer, a much rainier situation was expected than what actually occurred for this type of events that had a high probability of occurrence,” he explained.
However, he encouraged that, if it occurred, the consequences would not be the same. “We came from two years of water deficit and an extremely complicated situation so it is not comparable with what could happen in Uruguay. Although it actually occurs The girl and have some impact on our country, it will not have the magnitude that it had in the first/summer of 2022 and 2023,” he assured.
A turn of the page
Regarding the difference in the state of the fields compared to last year, the specialists were optimistic. “Although there are some areas that were quite complicated regarding the accumulation of the year, such as the south or southwest of the country, starting in March the situation began to reverse with the rains,” explained the biologist.
In that sense, Tiscornia commented that a water balance was carried out that was closed in the first days of March and it was determined that the fields have sufficient water reserves to not generate stress on the vegetation in much of the country.
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Photo: Pixabay
He General Director of the Farm of the Ministry of Livestock, Agriculture and Fisheries (MGAP), Nicolás Chiesa, agreed with the specialist. “These rains allowed the soybean and corn crops to continue their cycle and fill with grains. Today the agricultural sector and food production – the farm and the sector fruit and vegetable – is going to have a very good year,” he encouraged.
“We were coming from three years of significant water deficit in Uruguay, In other words, we are already entering a complicated summer regarding the channels and the cutwaters. Today, the water situation of Uruguay It is totally different because of all the rains that have occurred, all the reserves and channels are full and recovering,” added Chiesa, although he admitted that the water tables still have to be recovered.
The need for irrigation
The climatic invariance It is one of the factors that generates the most uncertainty in agriculture. “One month is never the same as the other, so irrigation is strategic to cope with the lack of water. Obviously there are some productions in which it is more necessary and more feasible to do and there are others in which it is more complicated to implement it,” Tiscornia explained.
Although the biologist admitted that irrigation is a possible solution for times when rain is scarce, she also explained that during the last drought some producers who had implemented the irrigation system They were left without water due to the extreme nature of the climatic event. There are also other factors that act against it, such as costs or producers having large areas of land that become unreachable.
Regarding this, the leader of the MGAP assured that investment has been made in irrigation systems to face possible new problems generated by a water deficit. Meanwhile, he also highlighted the importance of water use being more efficient.
In that sense, Chiesa stressed that the role of Republic Bank, Through the granting of credits to producers, it has been a key factor for investment in these systems. “Uruguay It has great potential to develop in the irrigation area, but we must continue making investments, for which Banco República has been key,” he explained.
On the other hand, he stressed that the role of UTE It has also been and continues to be key to increasing electrical capacity and providing the necessary energy for irrigation systems. “UTE “It is doing a great study to detect irrigation basins, although the difficulty is that the electrical power does not arrive and the lines are not prepared to support that,” he explained.
Source: Ambito
