He dollar remained downward in 4 of the last 5 months and lost 6.06% of its value since the end of October, when the bill reached 40 pesos, reinstating the criticism of the agro-export sector to the agenda. exchange delay.
The US currency closed March at 37,552 pesos, with a sharp fall of 3.83%, which adds to the much slighter decrease in February, in the order of 0.30%, offset by the increase in January, of 0.36%. These values explain the 3.77% decrease in the bill so far this year.
However the dollar It closed 2023 with two monthly losses. The first was in December and was low, depreciating 0.25%, but in November there was a bearish process of 2.14% that took the interbank from almost 40 to just over 39 pesos.
In this way, March marked the end of the quote “ironed” to start a bearish cycle, with seven weeks of consecutive falls. To this, it must be added that the Real Exchange Rate (TCR) has accumulated 25 months of year-on-year decline, its worst negative streak.
Questions grow over the exchange rate delay
The loss scenario competitiveness caused concern in the agro-export sectors where the exchange delay. Even from the Rural Federation (FR) requested that the dollar be worth 58 pesos to equal the reference average, in the order of 43 pesos.
Among the claims of the FR, they assure that the TCR with China It fell by 18% between 2010 and 2023, so that the historical average is up to 23% below, ensuring that “the loss of competitiveness is total.”
“The consequences are repeated given that the disease is the same, a sector with indebtedness growing”, they questioned from the agro, by warning about “the eternal return of the exchange rate delay.”
Something similar was observed from the Union of Exporters of Uruguay (UEU), whose president, Facundo Marquez, He considered the delay in the exchange rate “brutal” and called for thinking “not only in the short term, but also in the medium and long term.”
Even, Márquez previously requested that it be a reason for discussion of the campaign in view of the elections 2024. “All pre-candidates should make clear not only what, but how,” he said when referring to the economic plans of the political spaces.
Globally, the dollar has been rising for three months
In contrast, the dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of six prominent currencies, has been rising for three consecutive months and has risen more than 3% so far in 2024, in line with the decisions and clues given by the United States Federal Reserve (Fed).
The note ended 2023 at 101.33 units, but managed to appreciate 1.92% in January, 0.85% in February and 0.32% this month, culminating in its current value of 104.49 units.
Looking to the future, the behavior of global dollar will be tied to the decisions of the Fed, that until now decided to keep the level of the interest rate. In fact, this Friday, the president of the monetary authority pointed out that the most recent data on inflation are “in line with what we would like to see”, referring to the price index PCE, which increased at an annual rate of 2.5% in February, compared to 2.4% the previous month.
Source: Ambito
