International markets are altered by the context, and both the dollar As the Petroleum hit new five-month highs, although for different reasons. What is the scenario in Uruguay?
He global dollar hit its highest level in almost five months, driven by stronger economic data from USA than expected which, consequently, led to the reduction of bets on a reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) for June. That is, investors are increasingly inclined to the possibility that the currency will continue strong and with good returns, while rates remain at their highest historical range.
In this way, the dollar index —which measures the performance of the currency in comparison with a basket of six currencies of international weight— rose this Tuesday to 105.1 units, its highest level since November 14. Also the yields of the United States Treasury bonds (treasuries) At 10 years it climbed to 4.3212%.
Oil and gold, historic
He too Petroleum achieved record values, with the barrel of Brent trading at $88.71, and the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $85.01. With this price, Brent exceeded $88 for the first time since October last year, in the midst of a context of geopolitical crisis that threatens the oil supply already cut by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and his allies (OPEC+).
In this regard, the conflict escalation scenario generated by the attack Ukraine to the Russian refineries – which had as a counterpart attacks against the Ukrainian energy infrastructure – the tension between Israel and Iran after the army of Benjamin Netanyahu allegedly attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus, the capital of Syria.
Meanwhile, on Wednesday there will be a new OPEC+ meeting, in which the application of the production cuts of the group. Still, members are expected to maintain the current voluntary limits of 2.2 million barrels per day.
For his part, the gold spot gained 0.5%, to $2,260.72 an ounce, after reaching a record high of $2,265.49 on Monday.
In Uruguay, April started on the right foot
In Uruguay, meanwhile, the dollar achieved an important recovery of 0.81% compared to last Wednesday – the last exchange day due to the Tourism Week—, and was quoted at 37,857 pesos, according to official data from the Central Bank (BCU).
This is the second consecutive increase and the first after closing a March that was the fourth month of decline in the last five. Despite the significant increase recorded at the close of trading on Monday – which left the currency with greater possibilities of returning to the range of 38 pesos while the agro demands an exchange rate of 58 pesos—the accumulated decline in the year is 2.99%. So far in 2023, it has lost 1.17 pesos.
In any case, and given the good international signals, a timid recovery could be expected or, at least, a rebound in the price that allows supporting a very weakened exchange rate in the national territory. Here, likewise, the flow of currency will have a decisive influence thanks to the foreign direct investment (FDI)as well as the confidence of international investors after the rise in the investor grade of Uruguay by the agency Moody’s. The BCU’s decision regarding whether or not to continue with the pause in the cut cycle of the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) It will also be key.
Since the export sectors, Meanwhile, they expect that international factors will have a greater influence than the particular conditions that move the dollar locally.
Source: Ambito
