The Central Bank of Uruguay released a projection for December that was reduced by more than $1 between February and March. Inflation, meanwhile, returned to the target range.
He Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) published the update Economic Expectations Survey (EEE) corresponding to March, in which the agents consulted once again reduced their forecasts regarding the value that the dollar by the end of the year: from a median of 41.40 pesos they went to one of 40.15 pesos for the expected price at the end of 2024.
In a survey that was delayed due to the holidays for the Tourism Weekthe economic agents consulted by the BCU They cut, once again, their projections for the price of the currency at the end of this year. This time, however, the reduction in prospects was 1.25 pesos. Meanwhile – and although the forecast was outdated and wrong – by the end of March they expected a dollar at 38 pesos. The effective value was, meanwhile, 37,552 pesos; 0.448 pesos below.
The difference between market expectations and the real exchange rate in Uruguay It is not new: for months the price has been below what analysts projected, even when the behavior of the dollar was tendingly positive. Now, when the US currency is going through a moment of clear weakness in the local exchange market, the gap is even more evident.
Among the responses of the agents consulted for the EEE by the BCU, The minimum indicated a value of 37.5 pesos for the end of March, and was the one that came closest to the price with which, effectively, the month closed with a decline of 3.83%.
Refering to economic activity, Analysts expect growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 3.3% in 2024; and 2.5% by 2025.
Better news regarding inflation
While the exchange rate It continues to be an increasingly pressing concern for some sectors, especially for exporters – while competitiveness has been declining for 25 consecutive months in year-on-year terms; agents’ inflation expectations recorded good news: after having corrected their expectations upwards in February, analysts once again projected a inflation inside of the target range for this 2024.
This emerges from the median response, which predicts inflation of 5.98% for the calendar year—January to February—and 5.9% for the next 12 months. Last month, the forecast for December had been 6.2%, above the ceiling that the BCU and the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) within its monetary and economic policy management.
Although it remains to compare the projections against the official data of the National Institute of Statistics (INE)which have not yet been published), analysts expect a Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 0.5% in March.
Source: Ambito
