However, the projections remain above the target range, while the forecast for the moving year ending in February 2025 had an increase.
The inflation expectations of entrepreneurs in March fell once compared to last month, this time by 30 basis points, but they are still above the target range foreseen by the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU)according to the study published today by the National Institute of Statistics (INE).
The Business Expectations Survey of the INE revealed that in the private sector they expect a Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the order of 6.2% by 2024 —the previous measurement had shown a projection of 6.5%. Despite the improvement, they still remain above the target range, even when the inflation It has been there for 10 consecutive months and with a year-on-year price increase of 3.8%, the lowest since August 2005.
Likewise, business owners raised their forecasts for the next 12 months, from 6.5% in February to 7%. This indicates that they expect a inflation spike for the end of 2024 and the beginning of next year. Along the same lines, they kept their expectations unchanged regarding the moving year closed in February 2026, at 7%.
Regarding the median of the expected variation of the operating costs Of the companies, the businessmen’s projection was 7% for 2024, showing a cut similar to that of the CPI, in this case of 0.2%. Meanwhile, for the next 12 months they anticipate 7.3% and 8% for the period March 2025-February 2026.
A complex second semester in inflation control
The evolution of businessmen’s inflation expectations as measured by the INE is consistent with the current behavior of prices – with a downward trend and three consecutive months of reduction in the CPI, although business projections continue above the target range—; as with the estimates of the Center Economic Research (Cinve) regarding an increase in inflation during the second semester, above the 6% ceiling imposed by the BCU.
Certainly, both analyzes are above the projection of the Macroeconomic Policy Committee which, by 2024, expects an annualized CPI of 4.9%.
For Cinve, although a decrease in the interannual value is forecast until April, starting in July the target range would be exceeded again. This could be a factor also considered by the BCU, which, in February, began with a pause in the bearish cycle of the interest rates that characterized the monetary policy of 2023, with the objective of continuing to consolidate inflation within the target range and, even, in a range closer to 3% than 6%.
Source: Ambito
