One of the worst ghosts for world trade Petroleum took shape this Saturday with the attack on Israel by Iran, which had been preceded by the collision of a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz.
Although it is premature to know how far this conflict will escalate and its impact not only on the geopolitics of Middle East, but at a global level, one thing is certain: the market will respond with special sensitivity to the risks involved in the distribution of Petroleum.
Early on Saturday, before missiles and drones launched from Iran were intercepted by the air defenses of Israel, the powerful Revolutionary Guard boarded in the Strait of Hormuz and took the MSC Aries, under the Portuguese flag and with 25 crew members, mostly Indians.
The cargo ship was leased by the international shipping company MSC to Gortal Shipping, subsidiary of Zodiac Maritime, one of whose owners is the Israeli businessman Eyal Ofer.
Sustained tension in global energy markets
The global energy markets They have been experiencing months of special tension since the conflict between Hamas, in Loop and Israel, six months ago. When that confrontation broke out, the sole assumption of interference from Iran in the preparation of the terrorist attacks on Israeli territory, it set off alarm bells, raising fears of a regionalization of the conflict with the consequent impact on the Strait of Hormuz, through which between a fifth and a third of the world’s oil passes, according to various figures.
The place, key for maritime trade, also concentrates almost 17% of the production of the countries of the OPEC and houses two oil pipelines. A confrontation that affects its navigability would have a direct impact on the distribution and world prices of the Petroleum.
Six months ago, as we said, the effect of the markets due to the suspicion of Iran’s participation in the war between Hamas and Israel sent crude oil prices up. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) 4.34% and those of crude oil Brent 4.16%.
At that time both were trading below $89 per barrel, at $86.38 and $88.22 respectively. The current scenario for oil prices is more critical, as it drags months of stress on Middle East and the reduction of supply by OPEC+.
On Friday, investors began to process the imminence of an escalation of tensions in Middle East as a result of the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, and an eventual response by the Islamic Republic, which was completed this Saturday.
Yesterday, the price of a barrel of Brent for delivery in June rose 0.79%, to $90.45, even trading at $92.18 during the session, for the first time since the end of October. Meanwhile, in New York, the price of a barrel of WTI For May, it had an advance of 0.75%, reaching $85.66.
Attention in Uruguay due to the impact on fuel prices
For countries that are net importers of crude oil and gas, as is the case of Uruguay, upward movements in the prices of Petroleum They are bad news.
Ancap, The National Fuels, Alcohol and Portland Administration acquires the oil it imports into the country with the reference prices of Brent crude oil, which is marketed on the stock exchange. London.
The value paid by the state company is key in the formation of the International Parity Prices (PPI) report prepared by the Ursea monthly to advise the Executive on the modification or not of the public sales rates of the naphtha, he gasoil and the supergas.
The state company comes from months of absorbing the costs due to the maintenance stoppage of the refinery The Tile and transfer it on several occasions to the prices of fuels that consumers pay.
A large-scale conflict, such as one between Iran and Israel with the inevitable participation of USA and, why not, Europe, It would disrupt world markets for an indefinite period of time, with a special effect on energy values. The next few hours will be key to determining the magnitude of its immediate effects.
Source: Ambito
