The CPI would end the year within the target range, according to analysts consulted by the Central Bank of Uruguay.
The inflation expectations of the analysts consulted monthly by the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) fell again and were closer to the center of the target range, with the forecast that the year will close with a CPI of 5.41%.
In this way, the projections continue downward, despite the fact that the BCU warned in the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) that a rebound in inflation is expected at a global level, due to the proliferation of geopolitical tensions.
In this way, economic agents cut their projections by 57 basis points with respect to the previous survey, echoing the current level of inflation, today at 3.80% annually. Anyway, the answers about the CPI of 2024 showed oscillations between 5% and 6.5%.
Regarding the forecasts for the next 12 months, there was a slight moderation, going from 5.90% to the current 5.84% for the moving year closed to March 2025. Finally, for 2025 expectations remained at 6%, the ceiling of the target range, while for 2026 The median response was 5.90%, slightly lower than the 5.95% in the last report.
Inflation could rebound globally due to geopolitical tensions
Despite this decline in expectations, inflation is reviving globally due to the succession of conflicts, with a focus on the recent attacks in Middle East between Israel and Iran, but without forgetting the invasion of Russia to Ukraine. This was warned by the BCU in the last minute of the Copom, observing that war conflicts are generating upward pressures on the average prices.
The Central Bank authorities assured that USA is facing difficulties in achieving convergence of its inflation to the 2% target, mainly due to a slow decline in the core component and increases in commodity prices. raw Materials, as well as marketing and transportation costs.
Meanwhile, it foresees that the European Union (EU) and the other countries of the old continent will experience reactivations in the final stretch of 2024.
Source: Ambito
