He United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its harvest predictions soy for this 2023/2024 campaign where a total of 3.2 million tons is expected, amid a reduction in corn planting due to the possible effects of drought that would be caused by the return of The girl.
The report created by the office of the USDA in the city of Buenos Aires establishes that for the current campaign a harvest of 3.2 million tons is expected, reducing a total of 55,000 tons that were originally expected. However, a 15% growth was experienced in the projected yield, therefore, the expected production was raised from 2.9 to 3.2 million.
Meanwhile, the next campaign (2024/2025) is expected to be better with a total of 3.4 million tons harvested from soy.
Corn and La Niña
Since USDA They expect a significant increase in the soybean area while they will face a reduction in the sowing of the corn due to “producers’ fears of another dry year with the influence of La Niña on the climate and potential health threats to corn.”
In this sense, it is estimated that the corn reduce the area from 205 thousand to 170 thousand hectares and production falls from 1.55 million tons to 1 million tons, based on about 5,900 kilos per hectare in 2024/25. On the other hand, a drop in yield is expected from 7,560 kilos to 5,900 kilos per hectare.
Meanwhile, the drop in prices between 40% and 50% in one year affected the profitability of the grain, as well as the forecasts of The girl add to the sector’s concerns about the damage it could cause.
Rice and sorghum, with better forecasts
Meanwhile he sorghum would occupy about 7,000 hectares more than last year – those that this year were dedicated to corn – an increase of 1.3 million tons is also expected for the rice. This is due to the improvements in climatic conditions for the development of the crop due to the return of La Niña, which would return exports to the level of the 2022/23 campaign.
In that sense, it would be possible to recover the area lost in the last campaign, returning to the 163 thousand hectares of 2021/22, with a greater availability of water compared to the last season and with more competitive prices compared to livestock and soybeans. .
What is expected for the winter harvest?
According to the winter harvestFor wheat, growth is estimated from 10,000 hectares to 330 thousand hectares in 2024/25. Its production would be 1.3 million tons, about 260 thousand tons less than the previous year, which had record yields, so productivity would once again remain below 4 thousand kilos per hectare.
For the exports A decrease of 29% is expected for this cereal, going from 1.13 million in 2023/24 to 800,000 tons. In that sense, there remains uncertainty regarding a small increase within a general increase of 50 thousand hectares in the winter area.
Lastly, for the barley A gain of 5,000 hectares is expected to reach 240 thousand hectares in the 2024/25 campaign and a projected production of 960 thousand tons, below the 1.1 million tons of the last campaign, which had better yields but problems in quality, increasing the volume of forage barley.
Source: Ambito
