The opposition leads the Republican Coalition, but speculation begins about the number of deputies and senators that each space will add.
He Wide Front continues to lead the voting intention, although closely followed by the sum of the adhesions of the Republican Coalition, consolidating the parity scenario in the face of elections 2024, According to the latest survey Consultants Option.
When analyzing by spaces, the Frente Amplio would obtain 43% if the vote were today, 4 points more than in 2019, while the sum of the ruling parties reaches 40%, so that the dispute opens for the number of deputies and senators who will enter each space Parliament.
Specifically, the National Party brings together 28% of the votes, followed far by the Colorado Party, with 8%, which represents an increase compared to the 5%/6% of previous measurements. Further back there are Town meeting and the Independent Party, with 3% and 1%, respectively.
According to the telephone survey carried out between April 1 and 10, with a sample of 1,231 cases and a margin of error of 2.8%, the scenario would leave the FA as a favorite in an eventual runoff “due to its better potential for voter loyalty from October to November.”
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What are the possible scenarios after the internal elections?
When evaluating scenarios according to which candidates pass the internal elections, If the successful candidates are Yamandú Orsi, Álvaro Delgado and Robert Silva, The two blocks are in a 44% tie.
The survey also analyzes a competition between Delgado, Carolina Cosse and Andrés Ojeda, showing an important difference, since the ruling party would obtain 47%, against 41% for the FA.
Speculation for the parliamentary majority
In all the scenarios considered, Opción Consultores revealed that there is an effective and even dispute for the parliamentary majority, assuming that the Coalition will remain as a four-party legislative bloc in the next government.
The achievement of a parliamentary majority by the FA is one of the possible scenarios and, according to the consultancy, “a victory for the FA in the first round cannot be ruled out, even though, if the elections were next Sunday, the most probable scenario it would be that of a Second round between the FA and the PN.”
Regarding the number of benches that each space would add, the one with the greatest risk for the Wide Front It would be the scenario that includes Cosse as a candidate, with the CR closer to the parliamentary majority.
Source: Ambito
