He Ceres Leader Index (ILC) grew by 0.3% in April and marked its seventh consecutive increase, reaffirming the expansion of the economy in Uruguay and confirming the beginning of the positive second quarter of the year in relation to the performance of the economic activity national.
He Center for Studies of Economic and Social Reality (Ceres) published its monthly Leading Index, a leading indicator of the level of activity that is used to give signals about the sign of the evolution of economic activity overview of the country based on an extensive database composed of factors from the internal panorama and the international context.
The April report recorded growth of 0.3%, the seventh in a row, and also the Diffusion Index (ID) accompanied this positive behavior: the data that shows the proportion of the index components that grew in the month was 72%; That is, more than half of the variables that make up the ILC had improvements compared to the previous measurement, in March.
The ILC is measured by calculating a set of variables that they contemplate the internal panorama and the international contextwhich are processed by CERES, which tend to change direction before the Gross Domestic Product does.
Good forecasts but lack of competitiveness
The information confirms the trend of recovery and expansion of the economy after the consequences and the greatest impact generated by the historic drought that it experienced Uruguay They will be left behind.
“This year there is no drought, the price gap with Argentina was significantly reduced and the refinery plant The Tile He plans to return to activity soon. In turn, exports grow due to the full production of the second plant. UPM, and the completion of new investments is projected,” states the report.
In that sense, they assure that this is confirmed with positive data at the level of employment and real wages in the first months, which has an impact on greater consumption, and this dynamism is expected to continue in the coming months.
However, they assure that the country has suffered a loss of competitiveness – measured through the global real exchange rate – of 13% in the last two years, with a significant impact on the profitability of the agro-export industry and tourism.
“The reduction of the price gap with respect to Argentina contributed to a small improvement in recent months, but the competitiveness with Brazil and extra-regional countries continues to worsen, and no significant change is projected in the coming months,” he explains.
Source: Ambito
