The rebound that the economy of Uruguay After last year’s poor performance, it has influenced an improvement in business expectations for the final stretch of the government of Luis Lacalle Pou.
The semiannual survey of Exante showed an extremely positive evaluation of the business climate. 88% of the more than 300 executives consulted rated it as “good” or “very good.”
Dollar
Businessmen adjusted downward their expectations for the exchange rate, which is still stuck in a 16% delay. Most expect the value of dollar rise in a horizon of one year to 40.6 pesos on average.
According to the exchange difference with Argentinaa notable variable of the economic situation last October when the previous measurement was carried out, almost half of the companies consulted suffered adverse effects of the price gap, but a considerable number highlighted that the impacts have been reduced thanks to the progressive increase in dollar prices that the neighboring country had with the government of Javier Milei.
Inflation
The Exante survey demonstrated the success that the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) not only in the control of inflation, but also in the alignment of business inflation expectations with those of the government.
“At the level of expectations about the macroeconomic environment, the additional drop in expectations of inflation. The average for 2024 is 5.2% and more than 55% of those surveyed indicated that they expect inflation to be within the target range also next year,” the report noted.
Along the same lines, the average of inflation expectations In a horizon of three or four years it fell to 5.8%. It is the first time since this survey was carried out that the average is below the current upper limit of the target range (6%).
Employment
Executives were cautious in hiring decisions even as responses regarding job prospects improved. production, investment and cost effectiveness in companies.
About 30% indicated that they expect to employ more workers next year and only 12% expect to reduce their staffing levels. In the past, the net balance of responses to this question has been a good indicator of the effective evolution of employment in the economy, Exante highlighted.
Source: Ambito
