Despite the rains and losses due to excess water and delays in harvests, good yields are still expected for both crops.
Climatic conditions are once again a factor of concern among producers as the harvest season approaches, but this time, unlike last year, it is not the lack of water that is the problem but the excess of it: instead of a drought, Uruguay experience the effects of The boy, with intense rains and floods that delayed the harvests and puts at risk the good yields expected for grains such as soy and the rice.
However, and with the beginning of the first intense harvests in the west and center of the country, the production of soy —one of the country’s main export products— is still at good levels, above the expected 3 million tons and with the possibility, still, of being a record harvest after the meager results of 2023. As reported by Blasina y Asociados, although in several places the losses avoided reaching the projections of 2,800 kilos per hectare, the majority declare between 2,500 and 2,700 kilos, so expectations are good.
Of course, we will have to wait for the rains in the coming days and for the harvest to progress before ensuring a definitive forecast but, for the moment, the outlook does not seem to be as negative as it appeared.
To make an average, if 1.3 million hectares are harvested at an average of 2,600 or 2,700 kilos per hectare, between 3.4 and 3.5 million tons would be obtained, which could represent a foreign exchange income of more than 1,400 million. dollars at an average price of 420 dollars per ton, at a time when the market is dominated by caution after last year’s losses.
What about rice?
The rains also postponed the closing of the harvest of rice, another one that projected good returns. Although there will be losses, especially in the areas most affected by the accumulation of water, good results are still expected in a scenario, in addition, of good prices for this grain due to the drop in Brazilian supply, which they take into account. Rio Grande do Sul —the state most affected by floods in Brazil- to its main rice producer.
The president of the Rice Growers Association (ACA), Alfredo Lagoadmitted the existence of difficulties and losses, but stressed that, in general, it is a good harvest because the yield will still be historically high, close to 9,000 kilos per hectare, and because 50% of the grain has already been sold at that have been improving week after week.
So far, 92% of the harvested area nationwide has been surveyed, with some areas flooded or rural roads severely affected, preventing the passage of harvesters and transport trucks; mainly in the northern part of Rocha.
Lago warned that the difficulties in the harvest will cause kilos to be lost, so a final production of 8,800 kilos per hectare is expected. This will allow a global production of 1.3 million tons of which 50% has already been marketed at values that have already reached more than 700 dollars per ton for processed grain.
Source: Ambito
