The latest release from the Central Bank of Uruguay showed new projections for the Consumer Price Index.
The Uruguayan market expects higher inflation, but a cheaper dollar at the end of the year.
Photo: Freepik
Uruguayan economic agents corrected upwards their inflation expectationsthe expected value of the exchange rate by the end of the year, according to what emerges from the latest surveys of the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU).
The Inflation Expectations Survey of the month of May, revealed that the local market expects an annual inflation of 5.49% on average, when in April it was projected to be 5.38% for the period between January and December. The median expected inflation for 2024 also grew, going from 5.41% to 5.50%.
For the month of May, the variation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) projected on average is 0.39%, with a minimum of 0.15% and a maximum of 0.60%, according to a total of 26 responses.
In the next semester (until October) an average inflation of 2.44% is expected, while an annual inflation rate of 5.76% is estimated (as of April 2025). In 2025, the projected annual inflation is 5.94% and for 2026, 5.86%. All projections remain within the target range (3%-6%) established by the BCU.
One dollar above 40 pesos at the end of the year
On the other hand, the Economic Expectations Survey May showed that agents are more reluctant to think about a sudden jump in the exchange rate, after they moderated their responses and took the average value from 40.35 pesos to 40.05 pesos.
Regarding the current month, they estimate that the greenback could reach 38.61 pesos, thus continuing its operations within the range of 38 pesos.
The next semester (October), they believe that the dollar It should be around 39.62 pesos, and will be close to 40.74 pesos in the next 12 months (April 2025). In 2025 the dollar would close at 42.14 pesos, and it would close at 44.22 pesos in 2026.
Source: Ambito
