The state body expects the CPI variation to remain within the target range, although the average expectations were above.
He Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) projects that the inflation will be 5.6% by the end of the Monetary Policy Horizon (HPM)although the average two-year expectations were above the established target range of 3% to 6%.
According to the report “Evolution and price expectations in Uruguay” Prepared by the state body for May, the average inflation expectations of local economic agents stood at 6.33% for the next two years.
In the breakdown, the economic analysts they wait for a inflation of 6% by May 2026, that is, an upward correction of 0.20% compared to the previous monthly record. For their part, those in financial markets The update of the forecasts was 0.05% in this new change, to reach another average of 6%.
Between the companiesestimates remained stable with respect to the last report, and they expect that within 2 years the inflation accumulated is 7%, 1% above what was expected by analysts and the market, and 1.4% above what was projected by the BCU itself.
Evolution of inflation and the Monetary Policy Rate
The year-on-year inflation It was reduced in April to 3.68%, a figure that once again left it within the target range for the eleventh consecutive month, and which implies a reduction of almost 4% compared to the same month last year.
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The descent of the inflation registered in April was influenced by the drop in prices in recreation and culture, as well as in insurance and financial services. On the other hand, there was an increase in prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, particularly meat, and fruits and vegetables. In transportation, footwear and clothing, there were also increases.
The BCU, which cut the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) in April to bring it to 8.5%, once again made clear its commitment to maintaining the inflation within the target range in the HPM.
Source: Ambito
