He Petroleum At an international level, it was perceived downward throughout the month of May, while the reference values of the coast of Gulf of Mexico in USA were also shown in the same direction, these are some of the conditions that will determine the report of the Energy and Water Services Regulatory Unit (Ursea) for the prices of fuel In the month of June.
After having determined an increase in the price of gasoline and a decrease in the diesel rate, the Executive power is awaiting the report Import Parity Prices (PPI) in order to determine what the fuel values of the Uruguay.
However, it is not the only determining factor that the government takes, another thing to take into account is that the refinery The Tile It is fully operational, except for the cracking sector, which is expected to be operational starting next Friday.
Oil internationally
There are two factors that take Ursea at the time of carrying out the PPI: international oil prices and fuel reference values in the Gulf of Mexico in the United States.
Regarding international prices, oil has remained lower throughout May. The value of Brandnt fell during the month and remained at an average of 83 dollars, 6 dollars lower than in the month of April.
Meanwhile, the barrel for the first June delivery remained at 82 dollars, one of the reasons is that investors perceive that the government of USA could continue with high interest rates for a little longer. While another factor corresponds to an increase in crude oil inventories that reached 1.8 million barrels last week.
Gulf of Mexico prices and the threat of hurricanes
For its part, another of the determinants in the report of the Ursea corresponds to fuel prices in the Gulf of Mexico. These, according to the report published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) perceived a reduction in price in the simile of the naphtha Uruguayan based on the average of CBOB Regular 87 and CBOB Premium 93.
Meanwhile, for the gasoil, for which Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD 62) is taken as a reference, a decrease could also be expected in relation to the previous month.
However, there is another factor to take into account in relation to fuel prices and it refers to the climate. According to US Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), There is a chance of four to seven Category 3 hurricanes or even higher.
This could lead to the closure of refineries and oil extraction plants due to storms, which could affect production and, therefore, fuel supply and prices.
What are the elements taken into account in the PPI?
The methodology considers these elements when making the calculation:
- he FOB value (Free on Board) in a reference market, that is, the value of fuels in the port of origin, which varies according to each product;
- the total costs, expenses and fees necessary to place the product at the exit of the main dispatch plants;
- a remuneration for the available logistics infrastructure (port facilities, storage, pipeline, among others);
- the current tax regime (consular fee, tax commission BROUflammable rate, VATIMESI, etc.);
- agreements with fuel distributors;
- bonuses recognized at service stations;
- average freight values from wholesale distribution centers to the final consumer reported by Ancap;
- and the cost of biofuels (bioethanol and biodiesel) that Ancap must incorporate into gasoline and diesel according to Law 18,195.
It should be noted that the costs with the greatest impact on the price are external and cannot be modified by Ancap and are volatile as they depend on variables that are determined in international markets. This causes prices to increase due to the global situation.
The impact of the exchange rate is also fundamental, since the price of fuel is calculated in local currency.
Source: Ambito
