The Center for Economic Research predicts that the CPI will be higher starting in July of next year.
The year-on-year inflation will continue to move within the target range of 3% to 6% established by the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) at least until mid-2025, according to what the Center for Economic Research (Cinve) predicts.
In his latest report inflationthe academic institution expects that in 2024 the Uruguay have one accumulated inflation 5.3%, and that this remains within the target range until July 2025, when it would jump to 6.1%, finally closing that year at 6.4%.
Last April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.63%, in line with Cinve’s projection, which had been 0.6%. At an annual level, the variation stood at 3.8%.
For the current month, Cinve estimates that the inflation It will be 0.3%, and at a year-on-year level it will become 4.1%, below the midline of the target range. However, the report highlights that “the risks remain, both upward and downward in the projections”, since “climate volatility, exacerbated by climate change, may bring surprises in items such as fresh food.”
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Graphic: Cinve
The BCU projects inflation of 5.6% by the end of the Monetary Policy Horizon
The BCU projected that inflation will be 5.6% by the end of the year Monetary Policy Horizon (HPM)although the average two-year expectations were above the target range.
According to the latest report “Evolution and price expectations in Uruguay” Prepared by the state body for May, the average inflation expectations of local economic agents stood at 6.33% for the next two years.
In the breakdown, the economic analysts they wait for a inflation of 6% by May 2026, that is, an upward correction of 0.20% compared to the previous monthly record. For their part, those in financial markets The update of the forecasts was 0.05% in this new change, to reach another average of 6%.
Between the companiesestimates remained stable with respect to the last report, and they expect that within 2 years the inflation accumulated is 7%, 1% above what was expected by analysts and the market, and 1.4% above what was projected by the BCU itself.
Source: Ambito
