He fiscal deficit worsened for the third consecutive month and reached 4.2% in the 12 months ended April, according to the result of the Global Public Sector (GSP), adjusted for the effect of the Social Security Trust (FSS) which reported this Friday on Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF).
According to the data of the MEF, the deficit of Central Government – Social Security Bank (GC-BPS) was 3.4% of the GDP in the 12 months ended April, which reaches 3.5% discounting income to the FSS, within the framework of a election year that threatens the fiscal result.
From the report it is clear that the income of the GC-BPS stood at 27% of the GDP, remaining stable compared to March, due to the increase in the line Income of the Central Government was offset by a lower collection of the BPS.
Meanwhile, the primary expenditures They stood at 27.9% of GDP in April. The wallet that drives Azucena Arbeleche recalled that the expenses closed in the last 12 moving months reflect the effect of the advance to March of the payments of liabilities, remunerations and transfers (BPS) corresponding to April 2023. If the effect is adjusted, expenses increased by 0.1% monthly, mainly due to higher non-personal expenses.
Regarding the payment of interests The GC-BPS remained stable compared to the previous month, at 2.4% of GDP.
How public companies fared
The result of the Public enterprises was in deficit by 0.3% of GDP, decreasing 0.1% compared to March, due to the increase in crude oil and oil derivative inventories. Ancap.
In turn, the result of Non-monetary Public Sector (SPNM) was -3.3% of GDP and, excluding FSS income and adjusting the advances made corresponding to April 2023, it was reduced by 0.2% compared to the previous month. Finally, the deficit of Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) stood at 0.7%, remaining stable.
The PIT-CNT plebiscite, a risk for the fiscal deficit
Election years are always difficult in fiscal matters and this time another factor is added, which is the successful collection of signatures from the PIT-CNT which will lead to a plebiscite about the social security reform approved last year, which various sectors considered “a populist bomb.”
This is how the economist from the Center for Development Studies (CED) described it. Hernán Bonilla, with criticism ranging from the macroeconomic aspect to the reputation of Uruguay. “It seriously affects the sustainability of the social security system, it seriously compromises the Public finances forward and does great damage to the change in the rules of the game and stability,” said the specialist weeks ago.
In turn, the director of the Economic Research Center (Cinve), Gonzalo Zunino, He highlighted that “today the pure deficit of the system is around 4 points of GDP” and warned that with the change “we would be talking about basically 8 points by 2050 and 12 points by 2100 in case the plebiscite succeeds.”
Source: Ambito
