The US currency appreciated 1.24% in May and 2.04% in April. If the trend continues in June, it could reach its highest value in 2024.
He dollar closed May with a monthly increase of 1.24% and has accumulated two months of growth, after having improved 2.04% in April, with a current value of 38,792 pesos, which is its maximum in a month and a half, according to the data from Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU).
However, the US currency still has not reached the range of 39 pesos and remains far from the value expected by the market, to the point that its 2024 limit was at the beginning of the year, when on January 9 it was quoted at 39,439 pesos.
Thus, in case the dollar continue with the positive monthly trend, it must appreciate 1.64% this month to reach its maximum of the year. In contrast, the greenback It is 3.43% above its lowest closing level, which was on March 26, when it was worth 37,507 pesos.
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The evolution of the dollar, while the debate over the exchange rate delay resumes
At a time when the discussion on the exchange delay by different sectors, the dollar accumulates a decrease of 0.59% so far this year, driven mainly by the low performance in March, when the currency operated with a drop of 3.83%. Meanwhile, the variations in February and January were slight, with a decrease of 0.30% and an increase of 0.36%, respectively.
The delay in exchange rate It is close to 15%, according to BCU calculations, and several areas presented their proposals to improve the situation. Although the system of free floating is generally appreciated, from different areas they demand that the government grant compensations.
For example, from the Union of Exporters of Uruguay (UEU) requested to focus on the monetary politics and in greater efficiency in the public spending, as well as developing management mechanisms large foreign investments to avoid an impact on the local exchange market.
From the Rural Federation (FR), meanwhile, described the exchange delay as “brutal” and demanded “specific tax relief” to mitigate the impact on production.
The market expectation about the value of the dollar
The current value of dollar is today above what economic agents expected for the end of May, although it is still far from the price that the market sets for the end of 2024, according to the Economic Expectations Survey (EEA) of the BCU.
The monthly report shows that analysts expect a dollar to 40 pesos for the last business day of the year, according to the median of the responses, which expected a value of 38.50 pesos for today and foresees a bill at 39.55 pesos in 6 months.
Finally, thinking in the long term, experts predict that the currency will reach 40.50 pesos in April 2025 and that it will climb to 42 pesos at the end of 2025. The value of the dollar It would reach 43.85 pesos at the end of 2026, according to projections.
Source: Ambito
