The consultant Factum published the new update of its survey on preferences towards internal elections, whose responses were collected up to 20 days before the Uruguayans defined the final formulas for each party to compete in October. Results show favorites Alvaro Delgado in it National Party already Yamandu Orsi in it Broad Front, although the left coalition could still surprise in its race on June 30.
A little more than two weeks before the internal elections, Factum presented the new voting intention data collected exactly one month before the first election day of the year. The survey was carried out telephone and included 900 cases throughout the country.
An internal that can still give surprises
The internal Wide Front It is the most “fought”, although Orsi has an advantage Carolina Cosse that begins to seem insurmountable. With 54% of voting intention absorbed by the former mayor of Cannelloni, the communal chief of Montevideo must close a distance of 16 points. These figures remained unchanged from the last survey, and although the margin of error for both candidates is around 5 points – both positive and negative -, in the best of cases the difference would remain 5 points.
In this race, the most even between the parties, the number of people who turn out to vote on June 30 will be key. Cosse will have more opportunities in the scenario where only the hard core of the Broad Front militancy attends the elections.
For his part, the mayor of Salto, Andrés Lima, it grew 2 points since the previous survey, but is still far from the other candidates, with just 8%; although this result brings him closer to his parliamentary objectives.
7 out of 10 white people already have a candidate
For its part, the nationalist race seems to already be defined with 7 out of 10 whites having chosen their candidate: Alvaro Delgado comfortably leads with 72% of voting intention, while Laura Raffo It fell 3 points from the previous survey, and placed second with 18%. Jorge Gandini, Meanwhile, it concentrates 8% of the adhesions among those surveyed.
In this regard, Factum highlighted a “stability” within the internal National Party, being that Delgado has shown himself to have an advantage and an upward trend. While Raffo, who managed to obtain a third of the preferences in 2023, since the beginning of the year she has reached the preference of 2 out of every 10 voters. The biggest break occurred at the beginning of the year, when the former secretary of the presidency jumped from 52% to 59%, and then to 68%; while who could join him in the presidential ticket fell from 34% to 21%.
Internal with difficulties
As clarified by the director of the consulting firm, Eduardo Bottinelli in VTV Noticias, the results presented this Friday do not include data on the internal Colorado Party, because this is the one that presents the greatest challenges for pollsters due to the large margin of error it has.
However, he highlighted that they have registered a trend in which the candidate Andres Ojeda It is shown as the best positioned of the entire group. While in a second step, the names that appear are those of Gabriel Gurmendez, Robert Silva and Tabare Viera. Bottinelli insisted that this internal vote will depend on how many people turn out to vote in this non-mandatory instance.
Source: Ambito
