The 3 keys behind the rise of the dollar

The 3 keys behind the rise of the dollar

He dollar It closed this Thursday at its highest value of the year, reaching 39,468 pesos, confirming its positive trend in recent weeks and being close to adding its third consecutive monthly increase.

After today’s 0.26% increase, the greenback exceeded the 39,439 pesos it reached on January 9 and was until now the highest mark of 2024. In this way, it accumulates an improvement of 1.74% in the month, with a dollar which is strengthened when taking into account the appreciation of 2.04% in April and 1.24% in March.

Specifically, the US currency has improved by 1.14% so far this year and its good momentum in the Uruguayan exchange market It can be associated with various international factors and the local situation.

The rise of the global dollar and the devaluation of the real

Among global issues, the dollar index It accumulated some volatility in recent days, but hit a 7-week high this Thursday, after rising 0.42% and remaining at 105.66 units.

In that context, the Uruguayan Peso accompanied this international trend in recent weeks, while emerging currencies tended to lose value against those of the economies of the central countries.

Specifically, the devaluation of the real It was one of the factors that drove the peso down, since it is one of its references at the regional level. The money of Brazil It has accumulated 5 monthly falls and so far in June the dollar has strengthened 3.98%, closing today at 5.4532 reais, its highest of the year.

grafidolarb.png

Perspectives on the next Fed decision

On the other hand, expectations about an eventual cut in the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) in the interest rates is always present in investors’ projections and along those lines today there was data that showed the cooling of the working market.

The number of Americans who applied for benefits unemployment fell for the first time last week, as reported on Thursday by the Work Department, although the latest data showed the number of people on benefit rolls overall was the highest since January.

In turn, data from the Census Bureau showed a real-estate market which continues to struggle under the weight of the Fed’s high interest rates, which seeks to bring inflation to 2%. Thus, the Fed has not yet sent signs of an early cut in the reference rate, which makes the market more attractive. dollar Worldwide.

The Uruguayan exchange market

Finally, at the local level, the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM) has been at 8.5% since April 10 and there is almost a month until the next meeting of the Copom, in which, according to the latest upward movements of the Monetary Regulation Bills (LRM), could remain at that level.

Although that might not be attractive to investors, in parallel, as happens in December, June is a month with a lot of demand for pesos due to the payment of the half bonus, a factor that also makes the US currency gain momentum in the local market.

Source: Ambito

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Latest Posts